I’ll not say more because I don’t know the future. But I will say that the S&P 500 has now completed the minimum expected bounce with a touch of distinct resistance.
The US stock market is negative pre-open, but don’t be surprised if we get a strong bounce soon. It could be a trade-able bounce. I have bought a couple items in anticipation and am watching several more.
A bounce is a bounce; a trade. It is what happens on a would-be bounce that will be important going forward. What will the market do at resistance? That will tell us a lot about what this thus far mini correction will be, another quickie or something more lasting.
SPX has firm support at around 1800.
One of the leaders, NDX needs to bottom shortly and make a ‘higher low’ to February or it is going to activate a bearish intermediate signal.
 …and here comes the EoD kick save attempt trying to put a tail on the candle. I am hanging loose for the moment, having taken enough lumps this week and just loving me some cash. But even if SPX gets above support, that tail on the candle could be a sign of coming weakness.
Well, say goodbye to daily support for the S&P 500; at least in-day. This is obviously not good because it is coming after a failed stock market bounce on some Fed minutes b/s. Cash and the search for bounce points to take longer term short positions (but really, cash and equiv’s is a position!) looks like the near term future.
RSI looks like it is going to 30 after failing to hold the upper 40′s. The initial target would be a higher low to the January correction, assuming today remains like this. But even if it doesn’t, the in-day breach might be meaningful.
Here’s the 60 minute view on the chart we showed yesterday…
I bought puts on the bounce in SPY that will pay off if the market takes any kind of significant correction this year. They are dated out to December. The mental ‘stop’ would be if it looks like the recent bear hysterics were just a fuel stop for an upside blow off to come.
It’s risky because the S&P 500, unlike the the Nasdaq, never lost daily chart support. But if SPY goes flat or keeps rolling here I’m going to hold these puts for what I’d expect to be good gains.  Taking the profit at support and wait for breakdown. Profit came too quickly.
See if you can spot the important support level on this daily chart.
I am expecting it to hold for a bounce at least. If it should break however, we would start managing some of the implications of old friends the weekly and monthly charts…