The Russell 2000 obviously has an ugly topping pattern. It has long since nudged to a lower low to the August low and now has eased below March and January. If it holds below the line this thing will be in a bear trend. The bears should hope that TA geniuses do not come out and blow horn the DEATH CROSS!!! of the MA’s 50 and 200, which is a Red Herring. The chart is bearish enough without the help of that hype.
Anyway, RUT was a leader to the upside on this most intense bull market phase, which has been the post-2012 period and that leader is starting to lose its bull market.
For those of you keeping score at home, the S&P 500 tapped the SMA 50 and still resides below resistance. A rise above 1980 neuters the good bear work to this point. A hold below it, not so much.
Gold stocks are down again today and it is now decision time (for the sector if not individuals). That is because the parameter is to not make and hold a new low to the May low on a closing basis. We noted that a bounce is possible and if it is going to happen it should happen around here, at the May low with a similar over sold RSI. Either that or it would be broken with a lower low (that does not reverse quickly).
While we have been charting a constructive gold vs. commodities big picture view, we have also kept track of a disgusting gold vs. SPX big picture view as gold has been “boxed in” as it grinds around looking to close the gap from 2007. That was the kickoff to the financial crisis as the first institutions began melting down.
This cycle really has done amazing work in repairing (some, including myself would say sweeping under the rug) the damage and resetting the gold bug psyche as well. It is important to remember that gold bugs were the kings of everything back then, with their ideology unquestioned. But these are the markets and they don’t care about egos. Actually yes they do, they care about crushing inflated ones. The job appears to be in its final stages.
Okay, here’s the last one of these short-term casino patron updates. I’ve got more important things to keep track of like that short against DSLV, which is testing its limits this morning. SPX 60 minute view…
- Initial objective (targeted back when the average bull was supposedly worrying about Ukraine and Russia) of 1950-1960 (resistance, now tentative support) is in the books.
- Gap is filled.
- Pattern measurement still resides above.
- Typical of these rallies off of bull market corrections, they tend to test to the will of bears so that even those with the most conviction that this is finally the big one, will have a good amount of doubt, Soros Put position or not.
- I have no such conviction, and instead resolve to go with what the market says.
Well what do you know? Guess who’s trying to break the resistance zone, get to the gap and possibly even the pattern measurement? Why, none other than the SPX, fueled by easing Russia-Ukraine tensions according to this headline (try not to get startled when the picture jumps out at you).  They wisely dropped said picture down to the middle of the article.
For all you casino patrons keeping score of the short-term squiggles at home (okay, I admit it, when it comes to the US stock market I am a casino patron too ).
This thing is significantly higher than where I covered my SPY short so… so far so good. It would appear that the pattern neckline – which SPX resides above after dropping through – would be a key. Resistance is a viable candidate to stop the bounce, but as long as SPX is above the neckline so too I guess, are the gap and pattern measurement.