Tag Archives: SPX

Gold vs. SPX

While we have been charting a constructive gold vs. commodities big picture view, we have also kept track of a disgusting gold vs. SPX big picture view as gold has been “boxed in” as it grinds around looking to close the gap from 2007.  That was the kickoff to the financial crisis as the first institutions began melting down.

gold.spx

This cycle really has done amazing work in repairing (some, including myself would say sweeping under the rug) the damage and resetting the gold bug psyche as well.  It is important to remember that gold bugs were the kings of everything back then, with their ideology unquestioned.  But these are the markets and they don’t care about egos.  Actually yes they do, they care about crushing inflated ones.  The job appears to be in its final stages.

SPX 60 Min. Status [4]

Okay, here’s the last one of these short-term casino patron updates.  I’ve got more important things to keep track of like that short against DSLV, which is testing its limits this morning.  SPX 60 minute view…

  • Initial objective (targeted back when the average bull was supposedly worrying about Ukraine and Russia) of 1950-1960 (resistance, now tentative support) is in the books.
  • Gap is filled.
  • Pattern measurement still resides above.
  • Typical of these rallies off of bull market corrections, they tend to test to the will of bears so that even those with the most conviction that this is finally the big one, will have a good amount of doubt, Soros Put position or not.
  • I have no such conviction, and instead resolve to go with what the market says.

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SPX 60 Min. Status [3]

Well what do you know?  Guess who’s trying to break the resistance zone, get to the gap and possibly even the pattern measurement?  Why, none other than the SPX, fueled by easing Russia-Ukraine tensions according to this headline (try not to get startled when the picture jumps out at you).  [edit]  They wisely dropped said picture down to the middle of the article.  :-)

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SPX, 60 Min. Status [2]

For all you casino patrons keeping score of the short-term squiggles at home (okay, I admit it, when it comes to the US stock market I am a casino patron too :-) ).

This thing is significantly higher than where I covered my SPY short so… so far so good.  It would appear that the pattern neckline – which SPX resides above after dropping through – would be a key.  Resistance is a viable candidate to stop the bounce, but as long as SPX is above the neckline so too I guess, are the gap and pattern measurement.

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SPX to Get a Decent Bounce After All?

[edit] Errr, care to try again genius?

We noted that an SPX bounce target by the daily chart we used a couple days ago was 1950-1960.  Then some resumed bearish price activity called that bounce projection into question.  Today we are back at it asking ‘what if?’ with respect to the SPX’ bounce potential.  What if it can get to the high end of the 1950-1960 range per the 60 minute chart’s interpretation?

spx.60min

The 60 minute view has got positive divergence to price and a would-be measured target to a thick visual resistance area.

US Stock Market; Bounce Upcoming?

The US stock market is negative pre-open, but don’t be surprised if we get a strong bounce soon.  It could be a trade-able bounce.  I have bought a couple items in anticipation and am watching several more.

A bounce is a bounce; a trade.  It is what happens on a would-be bounce that will be important going forward.  What will the market do at resistance?  That will tell us a lot about what this thus far mini correction will be, another quickie or something more lasting.

SPX has firm support at around 1800.

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One of the leaders, NDX needs to bottom shortly and make a ‘higher low’ to February or it is going to activate a bearish intermediate signal.

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SPX Losing Support

[edit] …and here comes the EoD kick save attempt trying to put a tail on the candle.  I am hanging loose for the moment, having taken enough lumps this week and just loving me some cash.  But even if SPX gets above support, that tail on the candle could be a sign of coming weakness.

Well, say goodbye to daily support for the S&P 500; at least in-day.  This is obviously not good because it is coming after a failed stock market bounce on some Fed minutes b/s.  Cash and the search for bounce points to take longer term short positions (but really, cash and equiv’s is a position!) looks like the near term future.

RSI looks like it is going to 30 after failing to hold the upper 40’s.  The initial target would be a higher low to the January correction, assuming today remains like this.  But even if it doesn’t, the in-day breach might be meaningful.

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Here’s the 60 minute view on the chart we showed yesterday…

spx.60min