Market godz help me, but I just shorted SPY. No leveraged funds, no options, just a straight short that I hope to be strong enough to hold because we know how these things usually go.
It is not so much the nearby SPY target that I am looking at as it is a constellation of indicators that show market sponsorship eroding. This joins my only other shorts, which are in the precious metals [edit: much less short the precious metals now ] and are of a very different orientation than this one on SPY.
A snapshot of the current daily chart technical status of several ETFs…
GLD is bullish but in the equivalent resistance zone as noted for gold in NFTRH 296. MACD and RSI positive, with RSI close to over bought. Key support is at the MA 50 and 200.
Key ETF charts are a snapshot to current technicals, not comprehensive technical analysis.
GLD bumped above the lower end of resistance yesterday and is support for any continuing S/T rally activity. The big test is in the 123 to 125 area and the nose of the former Symmetrical Triangle.
ETF daily charts are a snapshot of current technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.
GLD has lost support after spilling out of the Symmetrical Triangle. Last week it was at the 62% Fib retrace and this week that is in the rear view window. Still bearish.
ETF updates are meant as a snapshot of the current technical situation, not a comprehensive technical review.
ETF updates are a snapshot of current daily technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.
Note: To keep unwanted clutter out of the in-boxes of those not interested in trade ideas NFTRH+ updates are no longer being emailed. They are posted at the site and accessible using the password for the current week. On Monday an NFTRH+ idea was presented for the NDX.
A reminder that below is a snapshot of current ETF status, not a comprehensive technical review.
A reminder that ETF charts are more a snapshot to current status than comprehensive TA. Also, to save time the MACD (which is usually noted as green (positive) or red (negative) will be colored blue in ETF updates going forward. The relevant point to the color coding is whether MACD is above or below zero. Also, RSI is added and the charts have a new format.
GLD broke down from an unimpressive short term uptrend (low relative ‘up’ volume), keeping the long anticipated support zone in play. That support zone is quite important. GLD is neutral-bearish, but with a potentially bullish pattern.
There are two things we can say about the stock market (SPY) today…
- This sure is not a show of strength following yesterday’s hope bounce and…
- That support had better hold or it is time to short the bounces
I somewhat timidly (I’m not coded to be a natural bear player, but working on it) bought the puts well above support. I might not be so timid shorting bounces if the market breaks down.
I bought puts on the bounce in SPY that will pay off if the market takes any kind of significant correction this year. They are dated out to December. The mental ‘stop’ would be if it looks like the recent bear hysterics were just a fuel stop for an upside blow off to come.
It’s risky because the S&P 500, unlike the the Nasdaq, never lost daily chart support. But if SPY goes flat or keeps rolling here I’m going to hold these puts for what I’d expect to be good gains.  Taking the profit at support and wait for breakdown. Profit came too quickly.