The Ukraine hysteria on Monday was almost too perfect; almost too per the script. One indicator that was done no good what so ever by the charge of emotion was the TLT-SPY ratio (one measure of risk ‘off’), which jumped as the least savvy players took the bait and knee jerked bearish as the media pumped the story. The subsequent reversal has damaged TLT-SPY, technically.
So if risk does not go ‘off’, where does that mean risk is? Well, risk would then be ‘ON’ in more ways than one.
Risk ‘on’ would mean further appreciation in assets and further degradation of the risk vs. reward ratio, which already sucks. A lousy RvR does not mean don’t play. It simply means that the market is at risk, similar to how silver was at 39>40>41>42>43…
Well, my patience was tested this morning but I not only held the SPY puts, I also added more shorts while that thing mocked me this morning.
All those indicators I posted yesterday plus the BKX-SPX ratio this morning along with these charts not having broken my parameters kept the bear trades on. I was gritting my teeth this morning though.
DIA turned down from resistance.
Okay, one more hump for the bear case and then I’m going to go play chess with my daughter, who’s been snowed in all day and is B.O.R.E.D.
You have probably been around here long enough to know what a lousy bear I can be. Wrong psych makeup for it or something. It must be my sunny personality. ← Yes, that’s a joke. But I not only held the puts on the SPY, I also added another index short position (speculative and going unidentified for now so no one else tries it) to go with the Emerging Markets bear fund EEV. Anyway, furthering the bear case…
DIA is at resistance and recovery volume has been lame, really lame.
GLD climbed above lateral resistance yesterday and moved above the trend line. It is on a bull signal by all data points. The pattern measures to 129 assuming the green line holds as support.
GLD is on a weak bull signal. It must get above the downtrend line or risk fading to neutral or bearish.