Tag Archives: spy

AMZN out, GOOGL in

By Biiwii

Two ‘internet stocks’ used to play the DJINET/stock market bounce scenario

As noted the other day, I did what I thought was the right thing and de-risked the ‘bounce’ scenario by taking some profits.  Included in that was a sale of the over valued but awesome Amazon (AMZN).  Today I replaced it with less over valued and maybe even more awesome Alphabet (GOOGL).  Each of these are just plays on NFTRH’s view of support for the DJINET at 280 as noted a week ago.

So the market bounce labors on and though yesterday got a little hairy, the potential is still for SPX to probe up near 2000 (I still hold SPY, my largest current position).  As for GOOGL, it has a habit of filling gaps and I am speculating that is all it is doing today with its downside.  The lower panel is GOOGL vs. AMZN, which interestingly has been in an uptrend through the worst of the market’s problems.  It did the same thing in August.  Profit booked in AMZN, I’ll try GOOGL instead so long as the ‘bounce’ scenario remains in play.

googl and amzn, two internet stocks

US Stock Market vs. Global Markets

By Biiwii

US Stock Market (SPY) vs. DXJ, HEDJ, EEM and FXI

From NFTRH 371, a simple look at what the broad US stock market is doing vs. Japan, Europe, Emerging Markets and China’s 25.  Things 1 and 2 are neutral and Things 3 and 4 are bullish.  Just a quick FYI info-blurb.

spy.dxj.hedj.eem.fxi us stock market vs. global markets

Covering Shorts

By Biiwii

[edit]  Also covered (sold) is the 3x Gold Miner bear fund DUST that I have used off and on against gold stock positions.  All in all, a good, but solidly unspectacular week (unless put in ratio to overall markets, in which case it was a rocket blast).  We have waited so long for movement and it finally came.  The next few months are going to get interesting from both bear and bull sides.  Money will be made… and lost as the herd is well, herded.

Since I am by no means an accomplished bear trader I have covered the short on the leveraged NDX bull fund (TQQQ) and the long-held short on SPY.  The latter thing took a lot of patience, but the fact that it was a straight, un-leveraged position made it easier to hold.

Support is down below, but I am not going to be greedy.  Who knows what the Jawbones might cook up over the weekend to manage the stock market?


SPY, Short Profit

By Biiwii

Well, I have held a short position against the SPY for weeks and weeks now.  It flashed profitable once or twice but has mostly sat there at a loss.  It is a straight out short with no leverage, so it has been easy to hold.  Today it’s actually pushing its way nicely into the green.

After discussing the potential that the Dow and S&P 500 bounces were just breakdown tests in a mid-day update on Friday, I decided to leverage up and buy the 3x inverse fund SPXS.  I am now taking profit on that because the market has taught me that gains from the short side, especially when using leverage and they come on hype-filled events, should be respected, cherished and taken!  I’ll continue to hold SPY short, however.

Here is the ugly SPY chart at a point that could be considered minor support.  But we have better support for the S&P 500, which would still not threaten the bull, significantly lower.  This chart says SPY 200 is doable if the current level is lost.  But again, I don’t really trust this Greece hype as a bear motivator.


SPY 210

By Biiwii

Don’t interpret this as a bravado fueled chest thumping post.  A measured target on a monthly chart can be plotted by a Chimp with a calculator. That said, here is a chart of SPY created shortly after it made the big break to all time highs.  Doink… it would be cool if this is the top, but it’s just one down week and the market needed a correction badly.  So no reading more into it than that.


I have been seeing the markets as well as I ever have (which is far away from perfectly) coming out of 2014 and into 2015.  For some reason charts are working.  By that I am talking mostly about daily charts and in many cases daily stock charts.

It may have something to do with the droves of dumb money that have been piling in and forcing individual stocks to act in a more linear fashion (ex: Google paints a nice short-term pattern, tests and finds support and expresses the pattern bullishly as hoped), maybe wresting some of the action away from those erratic black boxes.  Dumb money would force that linear action upon downside action as well, as they puke back out.

Patterns have been playing out as expected and beneath the surface I have a weird feeling that some heavy hand has backed off the markets or that the shear noise created by too many algos and too many jawbones has itself been drowned out in favor of more traditional market action.  Again, this could be a sign that the public came in big with the latest extreme over bullish sentiment.

I am heavy in cash (per recent NFTRH), short a little (per an admittedly timid NFTRH+ SPY update yesterday) and thoroughly going to enjoy this.  Patience, as always, will work well.

Wild SPY Ride

I took some puts on the SPY on Friday’s b/s joy fest and woke up on Monday ready to see red… in the markets.  Instead, what I saw was index futures up 1%+.  I saw red alright.  But I held on because yesterday just didn’t feel right.  It felt like a bull trap.  Here’s the wild ride in the SPY puts I held *.


* I say “held” because not being a river boat gambler (or even a particularly good trader lately) I took the flash profit this morning.  I hold a few other less dangerous bear positions pending the October view, which I am nowhere near convinced will remain bearish.

Also, I know this was not called publicly so feel free to disregard it.  This is not a site for casino calls anyway.  There are plenty of those out there. 

NFTRH; Key ETF Update

A snapshot of the current technical status of several key markets (a lot of charts today because macro changes seem to be in effect)…

GLD broke down from the Sym-Tri (strike 1), lost the June low (strike 2) and now would try to find support at the December low, equiv. to gold 1180.  Over sold, prone to bounce but technically bearish below 120 and 123.

Continue reading NFTRH; Key ETF Update

NFTRH; Key ETF Update

A snapshot of current technicals for key markets…

GLD became very bearish with the breakdown from 124.  A rise above 123 is needed to even begin to repair this chart.

Continue reading NFTRH; Key ETF Update

NFTRH; Key ETF Update

A snapshot of the current technical status of key ETFs…

GLD filled gap, which now closes out the geopolitical hype and leaves gold on its own right at key support.  Still not a constructive looking chart.  A rise above the SMA 200 and then the 50 makes it constructive.

Continue reading NFTRH; Key ETF Update