I took some puts on the SPY on Friday’s b/s joy fest and woke up on Monday ready to see red… in the markets. Instead, what I saw was index futures up 1%+. I saw red alright. But I held on because yesterday just didn’t feel right. It felt like a bull trap. Here’s the wild ride in the SPY puts I held *.
* I say “held” because not being a river boat gambler (or even a particularly good trader lately) I took the flash profit this morning. I hold a few other less dangerous bear positions pending the October view, which I am nowhere near convinced will remain bearish.
Also, I know this was not called publicly so feel free to disregard it. This is not a site for casino calls anyway. There are plenty of those out there.
A snapshot of the current technical status of several key markets (a lot of charts today because macro changes seem to be in effect)…
GLD broke down from the Sym-Tri (strike 1), lost the June low (strike 2) and now would try to find support at the December low, equiv. to gold 1180. Over sold, prone to bounce but technically bearish below 120 and 123.
A snapshot of current technicals for key markets…
GLD became very bearish with the breakdown from 124. A rise above 123 is needed to even begin to repair this chart.
A snapshot of the current technical status of key ETFs…
GLD filled gap, which now closes out the geopolitical hype and leaves gold on its own right at key support. Still not a constructive looking chart. A rise above the SMA 200 and then the 50 makes it constructive.
The market bounce is providing a potential opportunity for those who care to, to re-short. As you may know I covered a short on SPY on the recent decline and have been looking to re-enter it. The S&P 500 bounce target has been 1950 to 1960, but let’s refine the situation for the SPY.
A slightly abbreviated Key ETF segment due to ongoing time commitments over the mid summer weeks. Just a snapshot in time, picking up where we last left these charts a few weeks ago…
Market godz help me, but I just shorted SPY. No leveraged funds, no options, just a straight short that I hope to be strong enough to hold because we know how these things usually go.
It is not so much the nearby SPY target that I am looking at as it is a constellation of indicators that show market sponsorship eroding. This joins my only other shorts, which are in the precious metals [edit: much less short the precious metals now ] and are of a very different orientation than this one on SPY.
A snapshot of the current daily chart technical status of several ETFs…
GLD is bullish but in the equivalent resistance zone as noted for gold in NFTRH 296. MACD and RSI positive, with RSI close to over bought. Key support is at the MA 50 and 200.
Key ETF charts are a snapshot to current technicals, not comprehensive technical analysis.
GLD bumped above the lower end of resistance yesterday and is support for any continuing S/T rally activity. The big test is in the 123 to 125 area and the nose of the former Symmetrical Triangle.
ETF daily charts are a snapshot of current technicals, not a comprehensive technical review.
GLD has lost support after spilling out of the Symmetrical Triangle. Last week it was at the 62% Fib retrace and this week that is in the rear view window. Still bearish.
ETF updates are meant as a snapshot of the current technical situation, not a comprehensive technical review.