Tag Archives: Stock Market

Stock Market Myth #8

Guest Post by Robert Prechter & EWI

Don’t Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part VIII)

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy, etc. — NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

You may remember that after the 2008-2009 crash, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did they fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

This series gives you a well-researched answer. Here is Part VIII; come back soon for Part IX.


Myth #8: Terrorist attacks would cause the stock market to drop.

By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

I assume this is what economists mean when they say that something unexpected such as a terrorist attack would cause them to re-evaluate their stock market forecasts. At least, I doubt they mean that a terrorist attack would cause them to revise their estimates upward. It seems logical that a scary, destructive terrorist attack, particularly one that implies more attacks to come, would be bearish for stock prices.

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4 Reasons Why…

Today MarketWatch treats us to…

Four reasons why the market will rally for the rest of 2014

Aside from the fact that I hate it when people talk in absolutes (because there is no such thing as a guru who can really predict absolutes) the writer, a CFA and regular Fox Business and CNBC guest tells us why stocks will rally all the way to the end of 2014.  Wow, two whole months?

Before I even read the article let me just say that the irrational fear became extreme earlier this month and while we anticipated the bounce, its strength is now pushing through the top end of expectations.  Got to love the markets, and that ploy of putting a supposed Fed hawk, James Bullard, in front of a mic to go on about QE extension the moment the market took a decent correction.  Right there belies vulnerability and desperation.

Anyway, to the article written by the CIO of the aptly named Global Guru Capital…

He highlights how sentiment is still way too pessimistic out here…

1) The Market’s Manic Mood

Americans haven’t felt this bad about their country since Jimmy Carter’s malaise years. According to a recent POLITICO poll, 64% of respondents believe things in the United States feel “out of control” right now. Exactly half said the country was “on the wrong track.”

Yes and do you know why?  It is because the majority have not participated due to the inequality and inequity of the current recovery, born of policy and aimed at those who already have capital and have assets.  What do ‘Americans’ have to do with this?  It is all about keeping asset owners whole.  Next…

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US Stock Market Indexes

Guest Post by INO.com

Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 16817.94 +12.53 +0.07%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 4486.90 +3.18 +0.07%
S&P 500 CASH 1961.63 -2.95 -0.15%
SPDR S&P 500 196.12 -0.31 -0.16%
QQQQ VOLATILITY INDEX 10.48 +0.33 +3.16%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 110.985 -0.085 -0.08%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. There were no major, unsettling news developments occurred over the weekend, which limited selling interest in stock indexes. Focus is turning to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s regular meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. As usual, the Wednesday afternoon statement from the FOMC at the conclusion of the meeting will be very closely scrutinized by the market place. Most believe the Fed will formally end its monthly bond-buying program, called quantitative easing. Attention is also on the two key “outside markets” that impact many other markets: the U.S. dollar and crude oil. The dollar index was weaker Monday but still hovering not far below its recent four-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were lower and hovering near a two-year low. The next downside technical target for nearby crude oil is $75.00 a barrel, which I believe will be reached in the coming weeks. The much-anticipated stress test results on European Union financial institutions were released over the weekend. While there were some EU banks that failed the tests, overall the results were not deemed threatening to the EU financial system. There was another downbeat economic report coming out of the EU Monday, as Germany’s Ifo business confidence index came in at 103.2 in October, versus 104.7 in September. The Ifo reading this month was at a two-year low.

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SPY 1, 2 & 3

Just as we (well, NFTRH) did with the GDX gold stock ETF over the summer, when we gauged resistances 1, 2 & 3 on the Ukraine hype b/s (GDX stopped at #3), we now have established resistances 1, 2 & 3 on the S&P 500, DOW and NDX on the rebound rally, which itself we had anticipated.

SPY hit a trend line today, which I have a feeling will not hold as ultimate resistance.  So understanding that in my nature I have a sort of chronic mental problem with being a strong short (this is me the faulty trader speaking, not me the top notch* macro market manager), I took the small step of shorting SPY today.  No leverage, just a short.  This is against some still held longs but the last 2 weeks have been pretty good and I want to seek out balance again.

This chart of SPY shows what could be the ultimate resistance level beginning at 196, but the indexes (ref. SOX post earlier) have started hitting some bounce targets so I thought it was worth a shot to begin creeping shorter the stock market.

spy

* Sorry, but that’s just how I feel about my own work.  It continually adjusts the faulty trader and keeps his head on straight.

The Real Reason the Stock Market Turned Down

Guest Post by EWI

Want to Know the REAL Reason Why the Stock Market Turned Down?

The rout in stocks is no “jinx”

In case you’ve been roving Mars for the past month, you’ve missed quite a fiasco from the world’s leading stock market:

“Since it topped out last month, the Dow has suffered eight triple digit losses� Add it all up, and the Dow has slid about 7.5% percent from its peak, the biggest retreat in more than two years. It also means the Dow has now given back all of its gains for the year — and then some.” (Daily Finance Oct. 15)

Now, according to the mainstream experts, there are 3 key causes for the market’s sell-off:

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Stocks Not Over Valued*

* [edit] This is a 5 year relative view.  Longer-term, the S&P 500 remains over valued per its historical corporate profits metrics.

Pretend with me that we are in Wonderland, where policy inputs can keep everything on the macro in control forever and allow conventional mainstream financial industry people to twittle their P/E ratios and growth metrics for individual stocks and sectors as if it is a normal recovery of a normal economy.  In this scenario the S&P 500 is no longer over valued, at least by the corporate profits data compiled by this SlopeCharts graph.

It’s the same one we used to illustrate the over valuation that even a buttoned down Wall Street analyst could see (or should have seen) in the run up to the recent correction.  Well, it’s fixed now.  Again, we’re talking about what the financial services industry will want to promote to its clients, not the macro.

sp500

Free Report: “This is It”

[edit] From EWI, which has taken enough grief over its patient stance these last few years.  Whether this is “it” or not, find value in a range of opinions.  This is an extreme and possibly correct opinion.  Good old Bob… ;-)

As Bob Prechter says, bear markets move fast and are intensely emotional.

Please read this free report that could help you sidestep perhaps the biggest bear market in living memory.

Anyone who has been watching the market for the past few years knows that Wall Street wanted the stock market to get back to where it was.

You know, to the optimism and price levels in the time before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

And Wall Street did get its way in the Dow Industrials more than a year ago. The index reached new all-time highs in 2013.

As for the return to pre-crisis optimism, that took a bit longer. But return it did, and very recently, in two measureable ways:

  1. Stock ownership just hit “a rare extreme” — 34.4% of total financial assets among US households. That’s a higher percentage ownership than in 2007.
  2. The percentage of bears among advisory services fell to 13.3%, the lowest in 27 years. “This means 87.6% of advisors are bullish on the long term trend.”

Of course, these are contrary indicators. Many other similar measures have reached similar extremes. So when it comes to a “Return to 2007,” the real question is:

How far will the re-enactment go?

Markets are most likely to turn when the fewest number of participants expect it. The reason truly big market meltdowns become meltdowns is because so few people are ready beforehand.

We’ve seen a lot of down days in the stock market since the September 19 high. And, after every one of those losses, I read and hear the same idea from the media: This is “a buying opportunity.”

In truth, that notion is also part of the re-enactment.

It’s hardly been two weeks since Bob Prechter published his Special Interim Report. It posted in the afternoon on September 19, the same day as the high.

In 20-point type, Bob said

“This Is It.”

It’s times like these that investors need to prepare for the coming bear market. What we’re seeing is only the beginning. We would rather see you prepare early instead of late.

Preparing early means sidestepping perhaps the biggest bear market in living memory. It means safeguarding your spending power as others struggle to make ends meet.

As Bob Prechter says, bear markets move fast and are intensely emotional; investors and traders who are prepared have greater opportunities on the downside than on the upside.

Please read this free report, “This is It.”

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Gold vs. S&P 500 (big pic)

[edit]  Adding the daily view of GLD-SPY from this morning’s NFTRH ETF update.  I’d say some progress is being made here as GLD-SPY threatens to join several other indicators in a macro phase.  The trend is still down, but this is impulsive stuff.

gld.spy

For all you gold vs stock market sports fans, here is the big picture view of gold measured in S&P 500 units.  Though the stock market is making bearish technical signals and indicators are flashing a counter cyclical warning, the best that the Gold-SPX monthly chart can say at this moment in time is that MACD is getting interesting, RSI has a positive divergence and momentum to the downside by a Rate of Change (ROC) is slowing down.

The macro is changing in a big way, but we continue to note the poetic justice that would be satisfied if gold fills the 2008 ‘fear gap’ before resuming a bull market vs. SPX.  Given the damage that the US market is incurring, this could be satisfied with one final plunge with gold declining faster than the SPX or it could happen by other means.  Or it could not happen at all if MACD furthers its signal.

But it looks like we are grinding around, leaving one macro phase and entering another in the coming months.

au.spx