Tag Archives: Stock Market

Some Stock Market Leaders Wobbling

By Biiwii

As the bid shifts back to the venerable likes of the S&P 500, certain momo leaders like the Biotechs and the Internets are hiccuping and others, like the Semi’s and Small Caps, are downright on the verge of breaking down.

SOX-SPX

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RUT-SPX

rut.spx

While BKX-SPX flounders around trying to get its leadership back in alignment with interest rates, which we knew it would do eventually after going the wrong way the previous 2 weeks as yields dropped.

bkx.spx

China 50 vs. SPX

By Biiwii

I had imagined a situation in the China 25 (now 50) vs. the S&P 500 that called for China to either rise more than the US or decline less.  It was based on this weekly chart and its moving average ‘up’ signal which, while still in effect has turned out to be a load of crap.  You know, fair disclosure and all… got to put the bad calls up along with the good ones.  So there’s a bad one for you.

fxt.spx

SPX Big Picture

By Biiwii

It would be best if you’ll click the chart and blow it up to its full size.  It’s fairly huge and it’s fun to look at.

This chart was produced last year in NFTRH as MACD was rounding into a topping situation.  What I found interesting was that in the last two instances (Humps 1 & 2) a down-triggered monthly MACD served to drop SPX to the EMA 20, providing the refreshment that gave fuel to the dynamic final upside for the stock market as the ultimate down-trigger and liquidation came well over a year later and from a much higher price.

What is different this time is that price has not done squat (save for the hard stab down during last October’s flash correction and reversal), doing all it can do to touch the EMA 10 while MACD makes a stronger looking initial bearish signal than it did on the two previous cycles.

spx.mo

The way I interpret it is that in resisting any price destruction while MACD continues to roll it is probably a good idea to view 2000 and 2007 as cool comps but to realize this thing, built by will of man (and woman) per the chart below, is its own animal fully capable of attaining its targets, which once seemed ridiculous, or imploding for a test of major support or worse.

Humps 1 & 2 were attended by at least some semblance of monetary stewardship.  Hump #3?  Not so much.

irx.spx

So our post concludes, hey SPX can either rise a long way or drop a long way.  Sounds about right because we are in uncharted territory.  But as it stands now, that is an ugly looking MACD.

Same Old Same Old

By Doug Noland

Credit Bubble Bulletin

A Friday Bloomberg headline is a good place to begin this week’s CBB: “Emerging Market Currencies Tumble to Record Low in ‘Violent’ Selloff.”

From Ye Xie’s Bloomberg article: “Emerging-market currencies are in free fall. An index of the major developing-nation currencies fell to an all-time low this week, extending its drop over the past year to 19%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1999. The Russian ruble, Colombia’s peso and the Brazilian real have fallen more than 30% over the past year for some of the worst global selloffs.”

Other notable currency headlines this week: Thai “Baht Posts Worst Weekly Decline Since 2007…” “Indian Rupee Completes Biggest Weekly Decline in Three Months.” “Asia Currencies Decline as Chinese Data Compounds Growth Concern.” “Ringgit Forwards Extend Weekly Losses as Oil Enters Bear Market.” “Taiwan’s Dollar Posts Third Weekly Drop on Signs Growth Slowing.” “Commodity Currencies at Multiyear Lows.”

Continue reading Same Old Same Old

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis, News & Opinion From Around the Web…

 

RASI Shows Bull Market Waning

By Tom McClellan

Ratio Adjusted Summation Index
July 24, 2015

The Summation Index was invented by my parents back in 1969, as a companion to the McClellan Oscillator.  But it was in more recent years that we refined our understanding of the importance of the Summation Index in revealing what lies ahead for the stock market.

Continue reading RASI Shows Bull Market Waning

Pivotal Events Excerpt

By Bob Hoye

World Changer

hoye

Semi’s Updated

By Biiwii

As we await the Semiconductor Equipment sector’s Book-to-Bill data for June, we observe that Semiconductor sector leadership (SOX-SPX) is still intact in the US stock market.

sox.spx

This sector is noteworthy because it was a real indicator in early 2013 of the general strength to come in manufacturing (Semi Equipment cycles often do that) and later, employment and the ‘services’ economy.

Today SOX-SPX rests at a decision point and the bulls have the ball as long as that point is not violated.  The answer here will be especially important given that its 2013 indicator running mate, Palladium-Gold, is very bearish now.

pall.gold

Market Management; Remember DDD?

By Biiwii

Yesterday I made a post about the Semiconductor sector’s technical market leadership.  There are other considerations as well, not least of which is my own background in manufacturing and in particular, the state of the Semi Equipment segment within the general Semi sector.  I am not trying to hype anything, I am trying to be logical and if the technical and fundamental aspects marry up, there will be a trade here.

The technicals show that leadership is still in its trend channel per the link above.  They also show a nominal SOX index that dropped hard to around a point where those fundamentally bullish would at least start buying.  We have previous history (up to May) showing very strong Equipment sector bookings and we await new data to be released later this month.

In managing markets, you have got to have themes in play, plans extrapolated from those themes and above all else, an inclination to admit when you are wrong and revise those plans.  For now, we are on a Semi plan.

One plan that never needed a revision was the ‘Wall Street and associated media were printing up a big plastic model of HYPE for investors to suck on’ that I harped upon continually.  This site, due to my manufacturing background and familiarity with 3D Printing and Citron Research with a 3D Systems-specific bear view were the only places I can recall that called this promotion a scam at the heights of the bull frenzy.

3D Printing; no Barrier to Future Losses for Investors

ddd

Stratasys is the ‘best of breed’ in the sector and it too has been destroyed from the bad old days when the promotion was running full steam.  The stock market is higher than it was in February of 2014 and yet this entire sector sought out its true value just as the best laid plan thought it would.

My point is not to chirp and harp (well, maybe a little) but rather to continue to expose the b/s that runs 24/7 in this casino.  In October 2014 we had a hysteria in the Semiconductor sector centered around some stupid comments by the CEO of Microchip Semi.  He issued a PR talking about soft forward business and then the media popped its load falling all over itself spreading the grim news about the view of this key ‘canary in a coal mine’ company (hint: a better ‘canary’ is actually the Equipment group, which supplies the chip makers).

The point?  Hype is everywhere *, in the micro (company-specific like Microchip Semi; no pun intended), the macro (Yellen now blabbing about rate hikes still to take place in 2015 after some doofus at the Fed used the little blip of a correction last week to talk about pushing rates out to 2016) and it comes in positive and negative form.

One day when there is no longer a Biiwii.com (which will probably mean there is no longer a me) I want people to simply remember it as a source that hated hype above all else.

Okay, market’s opening and I’ve got to go manage it (which hopefully means doing nothing if I am properly positioned).  :-)

* I forgot to include the greatest hype of all time, from Stratasys and 3D Systems, some absolute gems talking about printing football cleats (during the run up to the super bowl) and Hershey’s treats.  Unbelievable. 

Semiconductor Sector Leadership; Intact

By Biiwii

In NFTRH 351 we had an extensive look at the Semi sector including its nominal technicals, its market leadership status and a potential setup that could be in play if my read on its fundamentals proves out.  FWIW, here is the status of the Semiconductor sector’s leadership.

Since Q4 2012 SOX has led the S&P 500, which makes sense since Q1 2013 was when we became alerted to the Semi Equipment sector’s ramp up (which in turn was an early economic signal).  3 times since the circus last October centered around Microchip Semi’s outlook brain fart SOX’ leadership became over done and now the question is, has it been over done to the downside yet again?

All trends end sometime, but as of now this one is completely intact.

sox.spx

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Credit Spreads: Like 1998 and 2008

pivotalevents