Tag Archives: Stock Market

Not My Euphoria

By Alhambra Investment Partners

In its 84th Annual Report released last June, the Bank for International Settlements departed from usual central bankish conventions and decried the growing departure from market discipline and even reality. The BIS even used the loaded term “euphoric” to describe what it saw as risk market prices no longer affected by fundamental economic conditions. As the Financial Times noted then,

The BIS, the bank for central banks, has been a longstanding skeptic about the benefits of ultra-stimulative monetary and fiscal policies and its latest intervention reflects mounting concern that the rebound in capital markets and real estate is built on fragile foundations.

Continue reading Not My Euphoria

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

  • Going Bust for Growth (PDF)  –Raghuram Rajan (to the Economic Club of NY) [biiwii comment: my personal central banking ‘hero’ speaks:  “The current non-system in international monetary policy is, in my view, a source of substantial risk, both to sustainable growth as well as to the financial sector. It is not an industrial country problem, nor an emerging market problem, it is a problem of collective action. We are being pushed towards competitive monetary easing and musical crises.”]
  • Avago to Buy Broadcom for $37b  –Bloomberg [biiwii comment: why again have we been interested in the semi’s since january of 2013? beuller?  here’s the chart of former NFTRH+ highlight BRCM; not that that long-ago update had anything to do with this.  that target was reached and exceeded a year ago… :-( ]

brcm

 

Transports – Big Concern?

By Chris Ciovacco

Transportation Average – A Big Concern For Stock Bulls?

Weakness In Transports In 2015

If you follow the markets, you have probably heard about the “non-confirmation” warning being flashed by the fact the Dow Transportation Average has failed to post a new high simultaneously with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Dow Theory Is Useful

We have written about Dow Theory many times in the past; a July 2014 article explains the economic rationale behind the theory. We believe Dow Theory is useful, but it is one of many sources of information.

Continue reading Transports – Big Concern?

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Financial Analysis & News From Around the Web

 

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Market analysis & news from around the web
  • Wall Street Vampires  –Paul Krugman  [biiwii comment: i’ll highlight anyone, incl. Krugman, when they are right about something; or at least mostly right about something. imo Krugman is right about this something]

 

Eurodollar CoT Indication

By Tom McCellan

Eurodollar COT’s Leading Indication

eurodollar COT data
May 08, 2015

The second half of 2015 could be a problematic time for the US stock market, if this week’s chart is correct.  I introduced this relationship to Chart In Focus readers back in 2011, and it has been a regular feature in our twice monthly McClellan Market Report and our Daily Edition since 2010.

The basic idea is that I take data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report on the commercial traders’ net position in eurodollar futures, and then use that as a leading indication for the SP500.  In this case, the term “eurodollar” (ED) refers not to a currency relationship, but rather to dollar-denominated time deposits in European banks.  So it is an interest rate futures product.

Continue reading Eurodollar CoT Indication

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

“Skewed Growth Curves: Unstable”

pivotalevents

China 25 ETF

By Biiwii

The China short (via the leveraged YANG) is now covered (ref. May 5 post) not because I think it is not going to go up more, but because I am a chicken.  I have never claimed to be anything other than a cash valuing risk manager.  The heroic shorting is for others until I can get new longer-term trends.  China’s trend, along with the US and others, is still up.  Not talking about secular trends, but rather intermediate ones, defined here as multi-month.

fxi

In reviewing the chart of FXI, I see something similar to the European Euro hedged ETF and several other items (incl. a  favored Japanese machine tool and robotics manufacturer that NFTRH subscribers know about) that may make good cases for re-buying, not shorting, eventually.  There is some of this going on in US stocks as well.  Think healthcare/biotech.

I don’t think the corrections are over with, but I am not ready to become a bear because I don’t see an intermediate term reason to yet.  So it’s swing trading and cash defaulting for this chicken until trends change.

Back on the China 25 ETF above, it is not over sold yet but down the road, pending the view on the broad global markets, I am watching the area from which we charted the breakout in NFTRH.  That would be around 42-44.

Around the Web

By Biiwii

Analysis & News From Around the Global Buzz Factory

 

Perma Bear Article Mocked

By Biiwii

Every time the market twitches the wrong way MarketWatch puts up bearish headlines.  The author of this article, Michael Sincere has been the most prolific…

Here’s how a stock market sounds when the bubble bursts

He takes us by the hand and guides us through the particulars of the different kinds of bear markets.  This kind of stuff has gone hand in hand with the bull market, which just eats it for breakfast.  Still, there is one bearish thing here and that is the comments from readers.

Here are the most recent.  One component that needs to be in place for a bear market is for people to have long-since tuned out the perma-bears, and instead to be mocking them.

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