Tag Archives: Stock Market

Gold vs…

By Biiwii

Note:  Hey, go check out the new NFTRH.com.  I think it’s pretty cool.

An update on Gold vs. stock markets, as at yesterday’s close.  These charts have improved today, but there is still no conclusive change in trend in gold vs. stock markets.  There could be some short-term chop if for example, SPX decides to rise again (I am not necessarily buying – or should I say selling? – today’s post-FOMC drop, though I have started to position that way, while holding a few longs that are doing just fine today) to the upside target of 2040 +/-.

[confusing language alert:  the above attempts to say that I still hold a few longs but started shorting the market on yesterday’s post-FOMC hysterics]

Gold vs. S&P 500

gold vs. spx

Gold vs. Euro 50…

gold vs. euro stoxx 50

Gold vs. Toronto…

gold vs. tsx

Make no mistake, gold sector fundamentals are looking good and the macro fundamentals are slowly creeping along.  But nothing worth its while happens in a flash.  This is a long grind (boy don’t I know it) to a new macro picture.  Meanwhile, the “community” has burped up the likes of this…

jim sinclair

and this…

Plunge Protection Team Losing Control of Markets -Jim Sinclair

Per this, lately…

Man, That’s Cheesy

And now today the “community” is glad handing itself in similar, but far less egregious fashion as it did in 2013 immediately after the Fed rolled over and punted on withdrawing QE 3.

Scary Gold Bug Article, on Cue

Hey look, just because I am getting more bullish on gold’s fundamental picture it does not mean I am going to try to make nicey nice with people (i.e. the “community”) who have guided to ruin the average gold bug looking for supposed expertise, for years now.  Besides, the sector is still nowhere, technically.

Let me see Gold vs. SPX blast upward and Treasury yield dynamics change trend and then we’ll bring out our own pom poms, though they’ll never be as brightly colored as the perma-poms.

[edit]  Well, it just got a little more egregious.  Here is a screenshot of a comment below the ‘glad handing’ article linked above, from the Gold Report.  These guys just can’t seem to help themselves.  Here is what I need to tell you; all through the bear market when certain gold bugs chest thump or try to get you to buy their view, things have not gone so well for those who took the hook.  Maybe it’ll be different this time.  Cue the stopped clock…


[edit 2]  Oh wait, isn’t the commenter a principal at The Gold Report?  Isn’t Streetwise affiliated with tGR?  Wow, an inside scoop on what Jeb Handwerger thinks.  Wow, I stand corrected for my wise assed skepticism.  I can speak like this because I’d never get put on the Gold Report, anyway.  That was after all, the entity that headlined an unfortunate article associated with Eric Sprott last year…

An Ebola Armageddon Could Trigger a Rebirth in Gold and Silver Prices: Eric Sprott

I can’t stand this and am now getting in a bad mood over it.  So in service to mental health, I leave the subject.

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Financial Expectations & Financial Reality

bob hoye, pivotal events
Click image for PDF report

Robert Prechter and Me

By Biiwii

The above title was assigned to this post while writing it and realizing I was blabbing a lot about myself and my own methods.

I finally had the time to do more than skim Robert Prechter’s most recent EW Theorist.  I can see why they released it for free, because in it he ran a laundry list of calls that have gone well and one – the US stock market – that had not yet done so (and indeed has been the market that has defined him as a frustrated perma-bear to many) as of its publish date.  Well, shortly thereafter that holdout market went well to join the rest of the world.

Here is the link again, if you have not read it:  Most recent Elliott Wave Theorist

I should note that I do not currently subscribe, although I have at times in the past.  I need to be very clear in my own thinking and trust my own methods, which have been working well, without too much of anyone else’s cross-talk.  But I always find Prechter an interesting read when I do have access.  He’s beyond interesting, really.  He’s pretty much one of a kind.

Some of my observations…

  • Prechter mentions exactly what I have harped on repeatedly; how economists (and financial services entities) tend to extrapolate things in linear fashion.  He notes “we extrapolate them in fractal fashion”.  I on the other hand, extrapolate them with a combination of technical, sentiment/psych and inter-market indicators.  Ref. for instance the PALL-Gold ratio, which made a bearish signal months ago.  I knew not why, but we certainly respected it and were prepared for the market damage that followed it.
  • As noted in the previous post, the guy was right on with Crude Oil, over the long-term.  EWI were also right on with Asia and Emerging Markets, while admitting that they have fumbled the US stock market, which “has just floated around as if in a dream”.  Well, it woke up last month and I for one could not be happier because finally it is in motion.  I care more about motion than direction.
  • Gold bugs used to laugh at Prechter routinely.  Indeed, I had to use my will to tune him out as his calls for gold’s top rose from 375 to 425 to an eventual 1900, when he was finally right.  US stock bugs laugh at prechter the same way now.  Anyway, he goes into detail on gold, silver and the miners, calling for a significant counter trend rally in the bombed out sector as well as in crude oil.  But these things are within larger bear markets.
  • Finally, he makes some good sense of Dow Theory, an art that I don’t pay much attention to, but appears valid and he shows why.

Anyway, the Theorist is well worth your 10 minutes of time if you’d like to pick it up, free of charge.  Also covered are China, real estate, etc.  It’s a take on markets as only Prechter can take it.

dow theory

Around the Web

By Biiwii

It has been a while since we went around DARPA’s creation (or was it Al Gore’s?) of networked thingamajigs…


Elliott Wave Theorist, Free

By Biiwii

Robert Prechter’s August Elliott Wave Theorist is free, no strings.  I skimmed it and it is a big enough picture of the markets to be very applicable now.  A big review of Dow Theory and US stocks and gold, silver, miners, oil and commodities.

Say what you will about Prechter – and he certainly elicits strong feelings both ways – but he nailed crude oil going back to 2007.  He has infinite patience; maybe too much patience, it seems sometimes.

Anyway, the EWT is always an interesting read.  Go get it for free…

The Elliott Wave Theorist

elliott wave theorist, robert prechter

NFTRH 360 Out Now

By Biiwii

NFTRH 360 does a 360 all around the oh so highly anticipated FOMC ‘decision’, talks a little about the accuracy of professional economists’ recession predictions and talks a lot about the US stock market.

Playing it straight, we update the market’s long and short-term technical status and get more slanted in reviewing why this is not an organic stock market bull or economic recovery.

We cover most of the other usual suspects as well, including global stock markets and a clear view of the gold sector, which made a ‘Hammer’ on Friday, can bounce, but is giving a couple of concerning sentiment signals.

NFTRH 360, another in a long line of quality market reports, is out now.

nftrh 360

Pivotal Events

By Bob Hoye

Nothing is Proof Against Busts

bob hoye

Investors Cling to Hope…

By Elliott Wave International

[biiwii comment: well yeh, but not in the short-term; they jumped like rats from the ship]

Amid Stock Market Turmoil, Investors Cling to Hope. Why?

History shows that many investors will hold stocks all the way down

I was watching financial television as the Dow Industrials fell 400-plus points on Sept. 1.

Two market professionals were interviewed: Both said the big decline in recent weeks represented a buying opportunity.

Optimism is so entrenched that even the worst month (August) for the Dow in five years didn’t faze them.

Other market observers have also shrugged off the volatility. Here are just a few headlines:

  • 10 oversold stocks ready to pop (CNBC, August 26)
  • Why I’m throwing money at the stock market (Marketwatch, August 26)
  • Why this bull market is not dead (CNBC, August 25)
  • Buy the Dip Becomes Buy the Correction … (Bloomberg, August 25)
  • Is Stock Market’s ‘Black Monday’ Time to Buy? Some Analysts Think So (NBC News, August 25)
  • Relax, we’re about to hit the bottom in stocks (CNBC, August 21)

This is an amazing display of optimism. Yet there is an explanation for this persistent hope in higher stock prices, namely:

Bullish psychology dissipates gradually.

Continue reading Investors Cling to Hope…

TIPS for a Risky Period

By Michael Ashton

Whoever is selling stocks these days is really appreciative of those who are pushing the market higher. Thanks to overnight rallies in China and Japan on Tuesday night, US stocks launched higher at the open on Wednesday. Now, neither the modest rally in Shanghai (led by official buying) and the bigger rally in Japan (on Prime Minister Abe’s pledge to cut corporate taxes next year) had the slightest thing to do with items that impact the US, but the rally led a wave that rolled through futures markets around the globe until about seven minutes after traditional stock trading hours opened in New York, when the high of the day was set. The next six-and-a-half hours saw a 440-point decline in the Dow and around 50 in the S&P to a net loss of about 1.4% on the day.

“Gee, thanks!” said the pension fund guys who got to unload stocks about 3% higher than they otherwise would have. Who says the fast money monkeys don’t have salutatory effects?

Continue reading TIPS for a Risky Period

SOX-SPX, etc.

By Biiwii

Well, the market still has its leader and boy did it not give damn today.  The Semiconductor index is still in the channel vs. S&P 500.  But that was a nasty in-day market reversal and is also why I have been recommending not trying to trade this middle ground chop in the markets with too much commitment.

semiconductor index leads SPX

The market is still trying to decide whether SPX 1975 (Resistance #1) or 2040 (Resistance #2) will be the bounce destination.  We laid these out over 2 weeks ago…

SPX Enters Correction!

But it is a whole lot of wasted energy (and maybe capital) trying to place bets before the market breaks upside or downside parameters.  NFTRH is keeping watch on those, but as of now, the market is stuck in the mud of the middle ground.

Further, there are positive indicators like the above-noted leader and certain sentiment data, and negative indicators like two would-be bringers of renewed anxiety, the VIX and the Gold-Silver ratio (GSR), hitting our downside target zone today (VIX) and looking like a bullish consolidation (GSR).

Folks, if it’s a bear market there is going to be plenty of time to short into setups.  I did go back to my old easy to hold straight short on SPY, with no leverage.  But truthfully, the bull market is not yet negated and really neither is the bounce.  That’s just the way it is.  But today was not a good sign on balance for bulls.  ← Thanks Captain Obvious!

Contour Map

By Michael Ashton

Let us begin with this: there is nothing inherently healthy about a series of +2% and -2% days within a range.

Having some grey hair (just a little!) is helpful in times like these because markets go through repetitive phases and it helps to have some historical comparisons to be able to guide an investor. At the same time, experience can be limiting if we try to force everything we are seeing into a particular historical comparison.

So, for example, I never view with anything but amusement the charts of day-by-day comparisons between this year’s market action with, say, that of 1929. Or, as another example I have seen: comparing a market to the Nikkei crash in the early 1990s. These are interesting an amusing market parallels, but there is no road map to markets. There is only a contour map.

Continue reading Contour Map