A good, tight 30 page report that is going its own way, not the way the herd is going.
NFTRH 297 out now.
The first in what I think will be a line of reports that focuses in on themes for deep summer, as da boyz relax, cashed out and sipping specialty cocktails at sunset in da Hamptins. NFTRH 293 is 35 pages of pure focus on US and global stocks, precious metals and the all important Treasury bonds / interest rate markets.
After being prompted by a couple of NFTRH subscribers I have finally gotten a public chart list up at Stockcharts.com. The charts are not annotated but they are what I’d consider key indicators and markets for NFTRH analysis. Items will be added going forward, but for now the list includes what I was able to come up with off the top of my head.
Subscribers can review these in the context of our ongoing work and discussion of them in NFTRH and public viewers can check ‘em out too as a handy reference.
Market charts are white and tend to be daily views while indicator charts are light blue and often weekly views. The multi-colored charts are Decision Point standards.
Again, adjustments will be made going forward to add different time frames, markets and indicators. Also, I guess I am supposed to ask you to vote for the list or something, as that seems to be pretty important to public chartists over at Stockcharts.com. So if you’d like to do that…
Just getting comfortable with the format. Please dear non-traders, tune out these updates.
As noted in NFTRH 287, CORN was dropping toward a lower channel line. This morning what I think is a chart anomaly dropped it through the trend channel. It currently resides right at the lower line, just above the 50 and 200 day SMA’s.
I had noted CORN might be added back on a test of the trend line and that is what I am going to do. Risk is controlled below the moving averages.
Buy target: Trend channel bottom
Initial Target: Trend channel top
Stop Loss: Below SMA’s 50 and 200, as suits individual risk tolerance
Profit alert (reminder) issued on 4.25.14 with price above 35.
4.29.14: 4% Profit taken. Channel top target is still open for those willing to continue speculating.
What better day than today’s predictable hard bounce to present the other side? If you believe the bounce and want to be a happy bull, just step along from this post. If you don’t mind considering other opinions or are like me in thinking 2014 stands a better than even chance of being the year that the current cycle ends, check out EWI’s 24 page report by clicking one of the graphics below.
We have come to a point in this cycle where we are supposed to feel ashamed for having bearish views or opinions. Prechter’s wrong again after all. The thing is, even a bull could use some alternate opinions. I am not talking about a market crash. Please. I am talking about a macro view. That should be someone’s basis for operation. I have my views and they have not changed since early last decade because the things I had negative views about have not only not changed, they have intensified and shifted (commercial credit replaced by official credit). But there is still a debit waiting out there.
We who hold a negative big picture macro view were stupid until the 2008 liquidation made us geniuses. Now we are stupid again and trend followers are smart. Wash, rinse, repeat. EWI is an affiliate and I make a commission on sign ups to their services. So consider this a promo. Also consider that EWI was founded by someone who was an influence of mine. So it’s not just a pitch. We’ve only recently gotten with the idea of partially funding all the free information here with ads, like most blogs have routinely done all along. Consider this an ad that I wholeheartedly recommend. And the darned thing is free for crying out loud.
Mastercard (MA) is has done some interesting things in gapping up on volume to form left side of the Head, then wiping those momos out on the other side and crashing the MA 50. It then bounced and found a now down-turned MA 50 to be resistance.
That’s a bearish potential topping pattern that would become an actual topping pattern if the support line breaks. MACD is red and this thing is losing momentum rapidly.
The implied target is around 60. Now it is a battle between the MA 200′s (support) and MA 50′s, resistance.
There is a growing presence out there talking about a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the HUI, which NFTRH has had going since mid-late last year. Below is a simple view of it, with last week’s ‘Week 2 down’ making perfect sense (symmetrically speaking) with ‘Weeks 1 & 2 up’.
GOGO: Falling Wedge down to support… fills a gap, triggers MACD, meanders out of the Wedge and goes RSI 50+. Why else would I buy some not yet profitable company with a really obnoxious name?
No, charts don’t work. We are just geeks that all too many people either laugh at or more often express contempt for. We are the geeks who see patterns and keep memories of things we’ve seen before, while eggheads of all kinds over intellectualize everything.
As we did with SLW
last week earlier this week, today let’s take a look at a speculative leader to the precious metals rally and plot a near term upside measurement in the GDXJ Junior Miners ETF. By looking at pictures like these we are able to keep perspective and traders are able to plan targets, entries, exits, etc.
The chart is self-explanatory as a short term target objective.
Beyond that, I see continued bigger picture progress on our macro theme, which is for renewed economic stress (maybe to a small degree, maybe to a larger one) and a return of counter cyclical pressures, which should be a fundamental positive for the gold sector.
In other words, the precious metals stock rally could have much further to go in 2014, but it is getting a little over baked at the moment. The above illustrates a target at or below which a trader might consider taking some profits.
Today there is some turbulence. Good, an extended rally scenario would not want to see the sector fly up to excessively over bought levels all in one big gulp. HUI is only moderately over bought.
By breaking the consolidation handle in the first half of this week HUI has now established the 220 +/- area as the first key support level, replacing the former 210 +/-. That’s progress folks and if (there is surely no guarantee) this support is to be tested the ‘grinding bottom’ scenario would be well in place.
HUI is bullish and until such time as it takes out an important support level (ref: 210 and now 220), pullbacks are healthy. The above is provided as reference for profit takers, would-be buyers, hedgers and regular old holders.