On a weekend where I took my daughter to Boston for two nights of voice coaching/recording, needed to watch the Patriots game (on DVR) and a late Rangers game, on a taxing California road trip (it may have been taxing for them too ), I somehow managed to get 35 quality pages done with NFTRH’s 325th edition.
I am happy with the report for the reason I often am when I think I’ve done a good job; I feel I am personally a better investor today than I was on Friday afternoon.
Guest Post by EWI
3 Ways to Identify Support and Resistance – 5 Chart Examples
Today’s lesson considers three ways to identify price support and resistance in the markets you trade.
- Previous highs and lows
- Trendline support
- Fibonacci Ratios
These examples are adapted from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom service.
1) Uptrends terminate at resistance while downtrends terminate at support. Previous highs and lows often act as resistance and support.
In ALCOA Inc (AA), the September 2012 selloff found support near the previous July 2012 low.
The February 2013 peak occurred following a test of resistance at the January peak at $9.33.
Continue reading 3 Ways to Identify Support & Resistance
The last post was a little perspective on gold over the long-term. This post calls attention to a post at NFTRH where the writer pops off a bit on the gold bears in light of today’s… what ever it is. Festivities?
I would normally be pretty cautious about a short-covering event like this, but coming off of a gold-negative hype event as it did, driving silver down to the low-end depths of my 14-16 target in pre-market, I find it notable.
Anyway, the post linked above goes into the need to use not only technicals in the gold sector, but importantly sector and macro fundamentals along with other indicators. You don’t friggin’ chart in a vacuum! Especially in the precious metals.
I swear this sector is filled with hyperbole both from the Pom Pom brigade and their evil twins managing what has become an ‘everybody knows’ situation with respect to how bearish gold is. Just ask that weirdo, Willem Buiter over at Citi.
In February of 2013 we noted the big fat HEAD on the HUI’s massive H&S pattern. It was reviewed again in April of 2013 after it broke the neckline in a very bearish move. Mr. Fat Head’s technical objective was and is 100.
Why is this being revisited? Because I have gotten a couple emails noting that it is showing up again out there amidst the very bearish backdrop. If anything, if every gold bug on the planet is planning for 100, the ingredient is in place for this final indignity that they are so well prepared for, to maybe not happen.
But a target is a target and it is there for a reason; namely that its source – Mr. Fat Head in this case – has not been eliminated from the picture. Here he is updated…
There are other considerations…
Continue reading Reacquainting w/ Mr. Fat Head; AKA HUI Monthly
We are operating to parameters on a would-be gold sector bottoming process, which has been a year+ long grind (‘grind is good’ as it absolutely ruins peoples’ nerves over time) and which by the way, everyone sees now as either a final bottom or a consolidation before the final and spirit destroying wipe out, depending on their Team’s hopes and aspirations (bull or bear).
About a year ago NFTRH projected two possibilities (within the context that it was only in the realm of potential) and they were a ‘W’ bottom or failing that (it promptly failed) an Inverted Head & Shoulders on the HUI. Today a new pattern has joined the IH&S and it is a Symmetrical Triangle, which would be a consolidation before the final crash.
Continue reading Gold Hatred and a Long-Winded TA Screed
HUI continues to make good improvement by its daily chart, which means that the already constructive weekly chart is gaining the upper hand.
Continue reading NFTRH; HUI Daily & Weekly Charts
With the help of some of NFTRH‘s standard weekly charts, we take a snapshot of the US stock market.
The Bank index is unbroken from a weekly perspective. People will talk about an H&S but it is not activated until the trend channel and the neckline (a well defined support area) are broken. BKX, along with the Semiconductors has been a notable leader to the entire surprise* phase of the bull market out of Q4, 2012.
A breakdown of support would break this cycle of the bull market (if this is a secular bull market as many experts think, then the bull would live again after the cycle completes). It would probably be healthiest to the secular bull case for a breakdown to occur into a relatively small cyclical bear market.
Continue reading US Stock Market; Weekly Charts
A good, tight 30 page report that is going its own way, not the way the herd is going.
NFTRH 297 out now.
The first in what I think will be a line of reports that focuses in on themes for deep summer, as da boyz relax, cashed out and sipping specialty cocktails at sunset in da Hamptins. NFTRH 293 is 35 pages of pure focus on US and global stocks, precious metals and the all important Treasury bonds / interest rate markets.
After being prompted by a couple of NFTRH subscribers I have finally gotten a public chart list up at Stockcharts.com. The charts are not annotated but they are what I’d consider key indicators and markets for NFTRH analysis. Items will be added going forward, but for now the list includes what I was able to come up with off the top of my head.
Subscribers can review these in the context of our ongoing work and discussion of them in NFTRH and public viewers can check ‘em out too as a handy reference.
Market charts are white and tend to be daily views while indicator charts are light blue and often weekly views. The multi-colored charts are Decision Point standards.
Again, adjustments will be made going forward to add different time frames, markets and indicators. Also, I guess I am supposed to ask you to vote for the list or something, as that seems to be pretty important to public chartists over at Stockcharts.com. So if you’d like to do that…