Tag Archives: US Dollar

US dollar Nears Target

The UUP ETF already hit its measurement at 22 and now the over bought Uncle Buck is nearing its measurement at 83.50.  One valid question in trying to plot Unc’s future is how long will the Fed choose to sit by and hold ZIRP as the economy strengthens?

Personally, I don’t understand how they can conduct this Kabuki Dance where half of them fret about being too dovish and the other half of them act as if they can maintain ZIRP-Infinity (or even ZIRP-mid/late 2015).  The economy is strong, the currency is strong and the stock market is strong.  What could go wrong?  Why not normalize rates in 2% chunks beginning next week?  Ha ha ha…

usd

US Dollar Consolidates

We had the US dollar in a bullish pattern back in July and wouldn’t you know a sharp rise came in concert with a stock market drop.  The US market, like others in the developed world keys off of policy making and its ability or willingness to [pick one... mute, compromise, repress, devalue...] the currency.  So the sharp rise in July did not go down well with asset markets.

usd

As the stock market bounces it is not surprising that Uncle Buck has consolidated above the pattern neckline.  MACD and RSI look suspect and if USD rolls over the stock market could continue to benefit.  A strong visual support area is noted at the moving averages.

Death of the Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really?

[ed: Excerpted from NFTRH 301's opening segment.  Those looking for paint by numbers directions and casino game instructions (talking to readers at a certain site that may or may not re-publish this article) feel free to just skip the article.  You will not get what you are looking for.  The balance of NFTRH 301 did the nuts and bolts technical work on the relevant US and global markets, precious metals, currencies, etc.]

[edit 2] Based on reader feedback from another site, it appears I do not understand inflation, nor that gold’s purchasing power is superior to that of the USD over the long term.  What I take from this is that if you post anything positive (like USD’s ‘price’ potential) about the buck and/or negative (like gold’s price vulnerabilities) about gold certain handbook carrying people in the gold ‘community’ are going to lash out first, and read/consider second.  In other words SSDD.

Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).

usd.daily

This is not to say that the US dollar has real value. How can it when it is hopelessly dragged down by a national debt-for-growth obsession. But as with gold, value is one thing and price is quite another. It is just that one (USD) receives a price bid due to a ‘nowhere else to hide’ sort of mentality by the majority when asset market liquidity becomes constrained and the other (Gold) receives a more solid value bid, over time.

Continue reading

The Dollar & Commodities – Just Friends

Guest Post by Michael Ashton

The recent, aggressive ECB ease, combined with some mild Fed growls about increasing rates “at some point,” ought to be good news for the dollar against the Euro. And so it has been, although as you see in this weekly chart (source: Bloomberg) the weakening of the Euro has been (a) mild and (b) started more than a month before the ECB actually took action. (Note that the units here are dollars per Euro).

eur

Continue reading

Government’s Disatrous Reign Over US Money

Guest Post by EWI

Very few people know that the United States did not create a monetary unit pegged to “buy” some amount of metal, as if the dollar were some kind of money independent of metal.

In 1792, Congress passed the U.S. Coinage Act, which defined a dollar as a coin containing 371.25 grains of silver and 44.75 grains of alloy. Congress did not say a dollar was worth that amount of metal; it was that amount of metal. A dollar, then, was a unit of weight, like a gram, ounce or pound. Since the alloy portion of the coin was nearly worthless, a dollar was essentially defined as 371.25 grains — equal to 24.057 grams, or 0.7734 Troy oz. — of pure silver. (15.43 grains = 1 gram, and 480 grains = 1 Troy ounce.)

Continue reading

Catching Up w/ the ‘All One Market’ Market

It appears that two anti-USD market participants have dropped out of the running since we last checked in.  So now it is shaping up like SPY, Euro and commodities against Uncle Buck.  Emerging Markets could be thrown in there too.  Gold and silver?  Palookaville.  This can’t make the ‘Dollar Collapse’ cult very happy.

spy

Euro & Uncle Buck Switch Positions

One is dropping below its MA 50′s and the other is popping above, after the ECB sat on its hands with rates but made a lot of Jawboning about ‘unconventional’ stimulus in the battle against the dreaded deflation.

It is unbelievable the degree to which people still have confidence in these clowns (including the ones packed into the little clown car here in the US), but apparently they do.

fxe.uup