I have not noticed too many gold sector experts talking about certain indicators that are no longer favorable. Funny how that goes. It’s short term stuff though, so maybe the idea is to go along and get along. Don’t ruffle feathers or upset the apple cart. NFTRH 281 ruffles a few feathers but beyond the near term has significantly higher targets for later in 2014.
There is also some crackhead stuff in here as 6 Semiconductor charts that I find constructive are presented (with targets) in the event that the SOX holds its breakout and the market goes into blow off mode.
In all 34 pages of quality reporting. NFTRH 281, out now.
I get it. I continue to look silly posting bearish things as the market levitates. Well, here is another silly bearish nugget for good measure. Sure, the sky pilots in junk bonds are chasing yields to the heavens. Why, just look at HYG go!
But its ratio to long-term Treasury bonds is not so stellar. It’s just another small divergence to the bull festivities, but there it is none the less.
I happen to think nominal T bonds have a good shot at rising soon. If that should happen, for risk to remain ‘ON’ junk bonds had better rise even faster.
The economy and the stock market depend on inflation. Get serious giddy stock bulls, they inflate, you make money. They fail to inflate and the tide turns deflationary, your gains go poof, money heaven. I’ll dig out some of those policy-profits-S&P 500 corollary charts again soon enough.
The relationship between TIPS (inflation protected) and TLT (regular long-term T bonds) is one indicator of inflation expectations and while it seems to have spent the last 2.5 years in bottoming mode (allowing Goldilocks to pig out on porridge) it is still going nowhere.
TIP-TLT ratio weekly, from NFTRH 277
Along with the indicators and parameters shown in the last few posts, the TLT-SPY ratio can be informative. We had a good ‘risk OFF’ thing going as TLT crept out of the Falling Wedge vs. SPY. Then we had an impulsive scare fest in the market as the VIX exploded, people got too bearish and TLT-SPY took a corrective turn down right at the 200 day moving averages.
So now, a parameter to the potential resumption of the bear case would be TLT-SPY holding the MA 50′s. Markets are making sense again, aren’t they? And we have not even talked about the daddy of all indicators, the gold-silver ratio. I love this market.
Folks, alas I am all written out. I can write no more today other than that this here market report, #277 is a damn fine piece of work. Key word ‘work’.
This one slims down to 31 pages of quality financial market analysis. These reports, which should be between 15-25 pages normally, are what they need to be for me to get enough data points analyzed given the current situation where 2014′s financial markets are grinding toward our expected changes.
There is no ‘set it and forget it’ right now. I am in full geek mode. Later will come the relatively fun part, like making money on new trends.
NFTRH 276 out now…