Tag Archives: Us Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Bonds, Gold & Stock Market

The following is one of a wide range of analytical topics covered in NFTRH 293′s 35 pages this week, much of which is straight ahead technical analysis.  But the T Bond market is usually central to an overall macro view at any given time.  This segment is not meant to provide actionable direction (other than perhaps to prepare for a potential rise in T bonds yields), it is meant to dig into the mechanics beneath the financial markets in an effort to have people consider that there is much more going on with markets than simple nominal TA or conventional fundamental analysis (PE ratios, growth metrics, reported economic data, etc.) can account for.

US Treasury Bonds

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10 & 30yr yields have declined to support as NFTRH projected

Yields on long-term Treasuries have continued to decline in line with our view that was contrary the ‘Great Rotation’ (out of bonds) hype. The [30-year] especially is now close to support and the next play seems like it could be rising yields and declining T bonds.

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Our long-term ‘Continuum’ chart; yields approach support

The 30-year ‘Continuum’ view above makes the simple case that players had to be put offside believing in the ‘Great Rotation’ at 4% yields. The nearly half-year decline since then has now satisfied the chart as yields have come to our 3.1% to 3.2% target range, where there is support.

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The Continuum

You did not hear about the red dotted line (AKA the monthly EMA 100 ‘limiter’) on the ‘Continuum’ anywhere else at the height of the Great Rotation Promotion.  Just here; though I recall Jeff Gundlach remaining firm on T bonds in the face of the hype.  Now the herds pile into T bonds as risk starts going ‘OFF’ (as so many indicators have hinted could happen).

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30 year yield (AKA the ‘Continuum’) from NFTRH 281

Ah, but there is a support level we have had on radar since the yield topped out.  I already sold TLT (20+ year bonds) and will probably do the same with IEF (7-10 year) shortly, keeping bonds in the 0-3 year range (come on Janet, end ZIRP).  TLT is getting over bought and the momo herd is in motion running from stock market risk into T bonds.  Unsavory characters they are, with little moral compass and even less common sense.

Also at some point, another risk ‘OFF’ asset is probably going to find support, bottom out and lead a coming phase.  We’ve got a 2014 Macro Pivot theme in play after all.  First the gold bug leaders have to finish getting debunked and strung up by the true believers.

CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes

Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week’s NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.

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The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming.

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10-2 Yield Spread Down Again

The 10 vs. 2 is, you guessed it, unfavorable for gold once again as it has been for a week now.  The declining spread (2′s up harder than 10′s) indicates that risk is coming back ‘ON’ in the markets as people dump their liquidity safe havens in the 1-3 year realm.*

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10yr – 2yr yield spread from Bloomberg

The good news for gold – should risk go ‘off’ again – is that it is no longer part of the ‘all one market’ syndrome.  It’s a risk ‘OFF’ item, which is what it should be.  Tune out the myriad rationalizations by conspiracy detectives and realize that gold is going nowhere until a counter cycle is indicated.

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NFTRH 286 Out Now

nftrh286Think about the year long topping process of up and down spikes on the HUI Gold Bugs index in 2011.  Now think about things that may be working on replicas of that activity (hello US stocks) and things in the mirror that may be working on the inverse of it (hello grinding and dispiriting gold sector).

Now think about how long these processes take to play out and the patience involved.  Also think about trading or defaulting to cash, because at times of change the volatility is something to behold (going both ways).

NFTRH 286 out now.

 

A Curve Ball

Guest Post by Michael Ashton

[edit] I have to claim credit as being one of the first and maybe loudest when it came to talking about yield spreads before the recent drop in the yield curve.  But Mike Ashton has professional experience dealing in the credit/debt markets as I recall.  His post is very interesting to a geek like me, and should be to all market players because the interplay between Treasury rates is key; even more so than any individual markets we may be micro managing.  So many things spring from interest rate relationships.

I saw a story on MarketWatch on Monday which declared that the “Treasurys most sensitive to rising interest rates” had been ditched by investors while those investors instead were “gobbling up longer-term securities,” causing the curve to reach its flattest level since 2009. I thought that was interesting, since an inverted yield curve is a valuable indicator of potential recession.[1]

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NFTRH 281 Out Now

I have not noticed too many gold sector experts talking about certain indicators that are no longer favorable.  Funny how that goes.  It’s short term stuff though, so maybe the idea is to go along and get along.  Don’t ruffle feathers or upset the apple cart.  NFTRH 281 ruffles a few feathers but beyond the near term has significantly higher targets for later in 2014.

There is also some crackhead stuff in here as 6 Semiconductor charts that I find constructive are presented (with targets) in the event that the SOX holds its breakout and the market goes into blow off mode.

In all 34 pages of quality reporting.  NFTRH 281, out now.

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