The ‘taper’ chatter is under wraps for the moment with the 10 year yield dropping the last few days and economic data dribbling in less than stellar. Have you heard that US consumer confidence is falling? How about that US home price growth is slowing?
Of course, deflation has been rendered little more than the lever needed by chronic inflators as they rationalize the endless bailout through monetary tricks. So disinflation remains a macro economic manipulator’s best friend.
#261 was just mailed to subscribers. It took 10 less pages (than last week’s extended exercise) to make some clear points, especially about what NFTRH is and is not bullish on in the intermediate to long term. This is in contrast to some curious conclusions I have seen drawn on the internet about last week’s publicly available excerpt that discussed gold and the stock market.
NFTRH 261 – focused viewpoint and all – out now.
This is the legacy of today’s policy making. Junk bonds barely flinched in the face of the debt drama and actually bounced in relation to T bonds, Investment Grade bonds and in nominal terms a couple days before the big feel good yesterday. This is not bearish and it furthers the point that people were suckered into thinking the world was ending over some Washington theatrics played out for public consumption.
In a strange way I thought ‘it can’t play out exactly the same way all previous sucker sentiment events have played out over the last couple years, can it?’. Well yeh, it can and it did.
When the media start to trumpet declining yields it may be about the time to sell TLT and IEI. For now, here is TLT looking like it’s got a good short term bottom going.
 Too funny; this literally came out within an hour of this post…