2018 Housing Forecasts

By Bill McBride

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  This is an update (I’ll gather several more).

First a review of the previous five years …

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Here is a summary of forecasts for 2017. It is early (just nine months), but in 2017, new home sales will probably be around 615 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.200 to 1.210 million.  Brad Hunter (HomeAdvisor) appears very close on New Home sales, and Merrill Lynch and NAR appear close on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016. In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts.

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