I wanted to provide a chart update on gold and silver after yesterday’s drubbing. But before I do that, I want to say that I really blew it with my “No Time to Get Cute” post from a couple weeks ago. I couldn’t have top-ticked the market any better, huh?
OK, with that off my chest, let’s move on to the daily chart of silver and see what it’s telling us. As you can see above, I’ve drawn the Fibonacci Retracement levels, something I haven’t really done in the past, mostly because gold and silver were in a bear market for so long! Now that we have an uptrend on our hands, we can look at Fib levels to evaluate where potential reversal points may occur during a correction. What’s interesting is that the 38.2% retracement level is identical to Silver’s 50 dma. And, as expected, silver bounced as soon as it hit this level. From a technical point of view, that’s good to see, especially since it found support at its 50 dma back in late February and again in early April. Bulls will want to see this trend continue. Time will tell. Relative strength and MACD look sick at the moment and volume has been picking up recently on the big down days. So between dual support at $16.35 and weakening relative strength, we should see a good battle between buyers and sellers at current levels. At the end of the day, silver probably needed to cool off and reset its momentum indicators before the next move higher.
Gold has hung in there a little better than silver of late and it too has found support at its 50 dma. As of this writing, it’s only down about 4% from its high back in early May so I’m not sure it can even be considered a correction at this point. Since I added the Fib levels to the Silver chart I thought I might as well add them to the gold chart too. Right now gold is well above the 38.2% level, but if it loses its 50 dma, then $1205 seems like a reasonable place for support. Like silver, its momentum indicators look weak and volume is picking up a bit on the downside moves.
So to wrap things up, gold and silver are in a precarious spot in the short-term. The next two weeks should provide clarity on whether both metals will continue to correct or if the next move will be higher now that they found support at their respective 50 dmas. On the longer-term charts, gold and silver still look very bullish – it’s just a matter how long and deep the current correction turns out to be.