In NFTRH 447 we used individual daily charts for the CRB index and various individual commodity items. This was in order to better view details of the bearish (but bouncing, as expected) state of the complex. Below are some of the more general daily charts we usually review (along with weekly charts) each week in NFTRH.
CRB and crude oil look bearish, NatGas is stable to constructive, copper is bearish as it consolidates the big bump, Agri is neutral/non-starter and the Uranium holder is bearish, exactly as we expected the fallout from the previous pump job to be.
As for some outliers, U stocks are bearish (post-pump), Rare Earths (which we played for the previous rally) are bearish/neutral and the Lithium fund (which is really nothing like a pure Lithium play with holdings including Tesla and Panasonic) is still dutifully looking for NFTRH+’s initial target of 33 (see ‘+’ post of Jan. 12, 2017, which includes the long-term target).
Here are some materials and resources stocks we follow (I currently hold Lithium producer SQM only) along with the Materials SPDR, XLB. XLB, VMC and SQM are okay at this time and FCX, TECK and RIO are not.
The above is just a daily snapshot and right now if I were to be anything in commodities, it would be short.
Heck here’s the daily CRB we’ve been using to illustrate the bearish view and call its bounces. We nailed the last projected bounce to 188-190 and on this one we’re looking for 182-184 with a shot at the SMA 200 (currently 186.93). So far, so good.
Politics and policy-stoked markets change quickly, so take this as a snapshot as of 8:25 US Eastern Time on Tuesday, May 16. That is why we manage not only commodities, but the whole global ball of wax consistently every week.
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