By Otto Rock of Inca Kola News
Brexit is now an active political weapon that the UK can and will use against the EU to get what it wants
As I write, the UK polling booths are open and citizens of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are voting on whether to leave or remain in the European Union. We know turnout is going to be high, we also know that most polls have Remain in a slight lead, plus the movements of sensitive financials such as Pound Sterling and gold indicate that the market expects a Remain win.
Okay, blah blah out the way, now for the point of this post. Whatever the result is, don’t think for a minute that it’s the last time you’re going the hear the archly annoying invented word ‘Brexit’ (Brangelina! Swiftlestone!) in your lives. Oh no, these idiot politicos aren’t going to let you off that easily.
First the obvious one (which at this time looks less likely but we need to cover it): If the UK votes Leave, the European establishment (both mainland and inside the UK) will try every trick in the book to stop the will of the people from becoming reality.
Second the more likely scenario today, a tight win for Remain. The pro-Leave camp in the UK will not stop just because they lost by a couple of percentage points, there’s political capital to be made here. Plus, the event of a tight win will weaken the leadership position of PM David Cameron, the man foolish enough to have dragged his country into this referendum in the first place. Back then, both he and Europe in general thought it was going to be a shoo-in vote, so even if the vote narrowly favours Remain there are a lot of EU bigwigs that have had the fright of their political lives these last few weeks. Yes, bigger than Greece and all that malarkey, the UK votes out and the likelihood of the whole EU structure falling to bits increases greatly (a point for another day).
Which brings the final point: If we assume 1) a narrow Remain result and 2) a David Cameron who will have to fight for his leadership position afterwards, he’s going to go back to the EU grandees (start with Angela) in the weeks to come and say “more concessions please”, particularly ones on the topic that nearly lost them the vote, that of immigration, or else he’s going to be replaced by a harder line leader (Gove? Boris?) who will put them through this rack all over again.
Brexit is now an active political weapon that the UK can and will use against the EU to get what it wants. Last time around, before the vote date was set, Cameron got a weak looking set of concessions from the EU. Next time around he’ll get a LOT more thanks to his new nuclear option threat. So whoever wins today, Brexit is now ‘a thing’.Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas; or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.