Judas Oilscariot

By Tim Knight

Well, oil’s explosive rally recently has been a thorn in my side (although the NASDAQ’s weakness has helped balance it out). I wanted to take a look at recently counter-trend rallies in oil and see if there might be any insights to be drawn. I have one……….

It seems to me, looking at recent history, that these idiotic, wrong-headed rallies last for thirteen days before reversing. Now I realize a sample set of two isn’t exactly mind-blowing, but what else ya gonna do? Just take a wild guess? Thus, if this pattern holds, oil has the rest of this week to keep pushing higher before it finally rolls over yet again.

0703-crude

One thing to note about the chart above……it does NOT include today’s action (which is another big up bar). I love SlopeCharts, but one limitation is that futures data is end-of-day only at this point, so I wanted to be really clear that one “day” is not present in what you see above.

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