Core PCE, after all of the temporary effects are removed, is essentially at or slightly above the Fed’s 2% target
Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments. Plus…buy my book about money and inflation, just published! The title of the book is What’s Wrong with Money? The Biggest Bubble of All; order from Amazon here.
- In prep for CPI: Econs forecasting about 0.15% core; Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast is 0.18%; avg of last 4 months is 0.20%.
- So, econs which have been too bullish on econ for a year (see citi surprise index) are bearish on CPI.
- If we get any m/m core less than 0.20% (even 0.19%), y/y will round to 2.1% b/c dropping off high 2015 April.
- But after that, next 8 months from 2015 were <0.20% so any downtick wouldn’t be start of something new.
- Hard to tell but the core CPI print was SLIGHTLY above expectations. 0.195%, so y/y was 2.147%.
- In other words, if someone charged another nickel for a candy bar somewhere we would have had 2.2% again. <<hyperbole
- That 0.195% m/m was lower than April 2015, but higher than May, June, July, Aug, Sep, Nov, and Dec.
- Core services unch at 3.0%; core goods downticked to -0.5% y/y.
- y/y Medical Care decelerated for second month in a row, down to 2.98% y/y; still looks to be in a broad uptrend from 2% in 2014. [ed note: chart added for clarity]