Keeping it Real

By Tim Knight

This post has to do with something which may seem like an oxymoron: integrity in financial prognostications. What inspired me to address this topic? Oh, that’s easy:

0314-gart

As you can see, back on February 22nd, Dennis “Commodity King” Gartman went on CNBC to declare that, at long last, for the first time in about five years, he was bullish on crude oil.

Savvy traders jumped on this and, knowing Gartman’s tendency to generate reputational pratfalls, shorted the bejesus out of crude oil and were richly rewarded for it. But this is not about Gartman’s well-documented tendency to, shall we say, not have a perfect record. It has to do with this “five years” nonsense.

I’m not sure if Dennis thinks (1) we’re all really stupid or (2) we don’t have access to this here newfangled “Internet” thing, but it would only take a kindergarden student about 7 seconds to completely refute the aforementioned assertion. I offer Exhibit A:

0314-mostbullish

So as you can see, in October 2015, Gartman declared himself the “most bullish I’ve ever been on crude”. My arithmetic skills are strong enough to know that February 2017 minus five years is long, long before October 2015.

Continue reading Keeping it Real

10 Trillion Yen

By Tim Knight

I happened to notice lots of poking fun at poor old Fibonacci studies this weekend, but I’ll say this: for months now, I’ve had a target of approximately 100 for the USD/JPY based on nothing more than a simple retracement study. It nailed that target (almost to the pip) last week, and it’s roaring 1.75% higher this morning, thanks to chatter about yet more stimulus from Japan (ten trillion yen this time……….like, umm, that’s going to help.)

0710-yen

But as I stand here in the pitch black 5 a.m. Palo Alto morning, there’s far more important news to me, which is this, hot off the press from our friend Tyler…….

0710-gartman

A flicker of hope now emerges anew from my soul.

Every. Single. Time.

By Tim Knight

Bears have been frustrated, and I am among them, that bear markets are allowed to go no longer than one, maybe one-and-a-half, days. This week brought another example. Monday was a market holiday, but on Tuesday, we had a nice tumble. The fall was continuing overnight, but our old pal Dennis “the commodity king” Gartman decided to go bearish on crude, and, well, the result was predictable.

0706-gartsucks

I honestly think unless this guy will STFU, we’re never going to get a chance for a serious downtrend, because every time we get a nice, meaty down day, he rushes out to say he’s “bearish” on whatever it is.

I’m dumb, but I wasn’t so dumb as to hold on as I would have if Gartman had said nothing. When I saw the above on my Twitter feed, I started moving fast, and I made no secret of it:

0706-tweet

Anyway, I gave back a little bit of profit from Tuesday, but, meh, that’s OK. I’m still very excited about the prospects Q3 is going to provide the bears, if only Mr. Very Very Slightly Bearish in Dong Terms would shut the hell up.