Don’t Buy the Greatest Fool Theory

By Jesse Felder

Don’t Buy The Greatest Fools’ Theory Of Investment Value

We are now entering earnings season once again. Pre-announcements have been the second-worst seen over the past decade.

This has analysts lowering estimates. In fact, they’ve been lowered so far quarterly earnings now look to fall all the way back to 2009 levels.

For the trailing twelve months earnings are now back to 2011 levels…

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What Can We Learn From Economically Sensitive ETFs?

By Chris Ciovacco

Cyclicals Have Lost Their Confident Look

We can learn a lot from the chart below, which shows the performance of economically-sensitive stocks relative to the S&P 500. After the S&P 500 bottomed on February 11, cyclicals (XLY) took the lead off the low as economic confidence started to improve. Notice the steep slope of the ratio off the recent low (see green text). The confident look has morphed into a more concerning look as the S&P 500 has continued to rise over the last month (orange text), which tells us to keep an open mind about a pullback in the stock market.

xly vs. spy, stock market indicator

A similar picture emerges when we examine the high beta stocks (SPHB) to S&P 500 ratio below.

Continue reading What Can We Learn From Economically Sensitive ETFs?

Stocks at Risk?

By Biiwii

This is as much a test post for the new site as it is a market commentary.  Biiwii.com is going to be primarily a guest site (nftrh.com will be my main posting venue for public as well as premium content) featuring the usual cast (Ashton, Hoye, Saville and others I think have quality, typo free financial market content) plus other quality writers I may find along the way.

Anyway, let’s see how a chart of the VIX looks with the current site format.  I know how it looks for stock market players; it looks like they have unwound all of their apprehension from earlier in the year.

vix