The Daily Shot 6.20.16

By SoberLook

Greetings,

1. Let’s begin with the United States where we have more evidence of a softening labor market. To be sure, we don’t see any significant layoffs as the jobless claims remain quite low. However, hiring may be slowing. Below is the Conference Board’s online help-wanted index.

Source: The Conference Board

While job openings in the US are near record levels, the rate of increases in job openings has slowed. When combined with the May payrolls report, there are clearly some downside risks here.

2. US residential construction activity is still relatively soft as growth in US single-family home construction permits stalls. Will lower mortgage rates help?

3. The WSJ survey of economists suggests that the US recession probability is elevated relative to the 2014-2015 period.

Source:  ‏@WSJecon

4. On the other hand, the second quarter GDP growth is tracking 2.8% according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow.

Source: @AtlantaFed

The NY Fed’s Nowcast, however, has Q2 GDP at 2.1%. Note that Goldman is projecting 3.2%. It will be interesting to see where US Markit PMI indicators come in for May – should know later this week.

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