Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP Forecast Drops From 5.4% To 1.9% (Kudlow To Replace Cohn In Trump Admin)

By Anthony B. Sanders

As Bruce Springsteen warbled, we’re going down. At least the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP forecast is going down … from 5.4% to 1.9%.

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The latest shoe to drop? The CPI report on 3/13, PPI on 3/14 and the retail sales report. And PCE growth is slowing.

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Over the course of the quarter, we have seen a decline in exports, residential investment, nonresidential structures, equipment purchase and finally retail trade.

Actually, the Q1 forecast fell to 1.852% (not to make it sound worse that it already is).

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As  you can see, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast has substantial volatility.

Let’s see what happens when housing starts and industrial production numbers are released tomorrow.  My model shows a downturn in housing starts (-3%) and a slight increase in industrial production (+0.5)  and capacity utilization (77.75%).

And congratulations to Larry Kudlow on being chosen to replace Gary Cohn as Trump’s economic adviser. Here I am as a guest on Kudlow’s CNBC show.

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Gary

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