As Bruce Springsteen warbled, we’re going down. At least the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP forecast is going down … from 5.4% to 1.9%.
The latest shoe to drop? The CPI report on 3/13, PPI on 3/14 and the retail sales report. And PCE growth is slowing.
Over the course of the quarter, we have seen a decline in exports, residential investment, nonresidential structures, equipment purchase and finally retail trade.
Actually, the Q1 forecast fell to 1.852% (not to make it sound worse that it already is).
As you can see, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast has substantial volatility.
Let’s see what happens when housing starts and industrial production numbers are released tomorrow. My model shows a downturn in housing starts (-3%) and a slight increase in industrial production (+0.5) and capacity utilization (77.75%).
And congratulations to Larry Kudlow on being chosen to replace Gary Cohn as Trump’s economic adviser. Here I am as a guest on Kudlow’s CNBC show.