A Down Fed Day After SPX Closed At A 10-Day High

By Rob Hanna

Reaction to the Fed ended up being negative on Wednesday. The study below is an old one I had not examined in a few years. It looked at other times SPX closed down on a Fed after closing at a 10-day high the day before.

2018-06-14-1

This is a setup that has changed over the years. Prior to 2009, this setup often saw the market move higher the next day. But the recent tendency has been decidedly downward. Below is a look at the profit curve.

2018-06-14-2

With a low sample size, and this only being a recent tendency, I do not consider it a strong edge. But this may be something traders want to consider, especially if the tendency persists over the next several instances.

A large number of more substantial edges related to Fed Day activity can be found in the Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days, which is available now if you make any size donation to the Multiple Sclerosis Society. More details on that promotion are available here.

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