Trade War Hysteria: Where’s The Beef?

By Anthony B. Sanders

VIX, TYVIX, Baltic Dry, Credit Spreads Calm

The news is constantly abuzz with scary “Trade War!” headlines. But it reminds me of Wendy’s hamburger ads from the early 1980s: “Where’s the beef?”

Let’s look at the VIX (S&P 500 volatility index).  It is showing no signs of stress.


How about the 10-year Treasury Note volatility index (TYVIX)? Nada.


Baltic Dry Index? That spiked prior to The Great Recession? Nein.


How about the IG credit spreads? A little stress.


But other credit spreads (Baa – Treasury 10-year) do not show anything to speak of.


So, where’s the (trade) beef?


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