QT Redemption Day… Again

By Kevin Muir

Although I have a theory that on Quantitative Tightening expiry days the stock market is weak, the last two haven’t worked out.

To be fair, I warned you about this past one as it coincided with the day before the FOMC meeting – a period long known to be subject to abnormal stock market strength due to the FOMC drift.

But here we are, with tomorrow (Wednesday August 15th), having just a shade over $23 billion of bonds expiring.

So even though I am not one to hop upon the “world-is-ending-because-of-EM-contagion-bandwagon”, I am taking a flyer on the short side for tomorrow’s trading.

Recently QT expiry days have coincided with month-end and it will be interesting to have a large redemption day occur on a more “regular” trading day. It will be a great test of the theory in a more “pure” environment.

Don’t mistake this punt as a change of heart to the bearish side. It’s purely a one-day-trading position.

Let’s hope it’s not three in a row as that cat looks really mean…

Thanks for reading,
Kevin Muir
the MacroTourist

Support 100% ad-free Biiwii.com by making a donation of your choice!

Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get even more bang for your buck. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.

Published by


NFTRH.com & Biiwii.com