The global GDP weighted consumer sentiment index dipped slightly in September, but stayed within its upward trend, and continued its divergence against the global manufacturing PMI. That last point is worth highlighting. Consumer sentiment is often understood to be more of a lagging/coincident indicator and hence the weakness in the PMI may flow through later. But it does beg the question once more as to whether the softer PMI readings are purely sentiment effects and simply overreaction to news headlines. If the consumer is right then before long it will be back to business for global risk assets, but if the manufacturer is right then consumer sentiment could simply be the next shoe to drop.
BONUS CHART: Here’s the Thomson Reuters Ipsos consumer sentiment indicators arranged in GDP weighted groups for Emerging vs Developed economies. Over the past 2 years EM & DM have basically seen a synchronized improvement in consumer sentiment. With both holding up, it further highlights the point about apparent strength in the global economy vs headline and market volatility driven sentiment effects…
Looking for deeper insights? Try taking a free trial of our institutional research service.
Support 100% ad-free Biiwii.com by making a donation of your choice!
Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get even more bang for your buck. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.