MOVE And Tyvix Spike (Do The Fed Tighten Up?)
Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio said back in January 2018 that “A 1 percent rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since 1980 to 1981.”
Well, we are still in a higher bond duration section of the Price/Yield curve where further increases in yield shifts can clobber Treasury prices.
Like the recent decline in 10-year Treasury Note prices.
Given that the US economy is exposed to an all-time high in interest rate senstivity, it would behoove The Fed to “take it easy.”
Merrill Lynch’s Option Volatiltiy Estimate (a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options which are weighted on the 2, 5, 10, and 30 year contracts) and the TYVIX 10-year volality index both spiked recently.
So let’s see how far The Fed will keep on pushin’, perhaps too hard on equities.
But fixed-income (bond) funds have been getting beaten since Yellen announced the end of QE in 2014, the beginning of “The Tighten Up.”
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