The United States: The probability of a recession over the next six months remains modest.
Rates: This chart shows who is long and short the two-year Treasury futures.
China: The rate differential between China and the US has been closing, which has been putting downward pressure on the yuan.
The Eurozone: Market-based inflation expectations are drifting lower.
Equities: Based on some indicators, US valuations look interesting again (P/E = price-to-earnings ratio; NTM = next twelve months).
Global Developments: Analysts expect further spikes in market volatility as the major central banks’ total balance sheet begins contracting.
Emerging Markets: Dollar-denominated EM bonds (orange) held up better than US high-yield debt (white) in the recent selloff.
Food for Thought: Death rates among younger Americans:
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