Here’s some of the standout economic and markets charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities across asset classes. Hope you enjoy!
1. Manufacturing PMI – China vs USA: T he November PMI data showed the US economy chugging along at a solid pace, and China’s economy continuing to lose momentum. Perhaps a salient chart given the weekend’s “news” of the trade war ceasefire (my take = constructive skepticism… i.e. we’ll see).
2. China Economic Policy Uncertainty: Another November monthly stat – the economic policy uncertainty index for China. It moved up to its second highest level, which reflects the cyclical headwinds, political cross currents, and structural challenges. But there is a silver lining in this one, because part of the uncertainty gravitates around what/when/how much an eventual (my view, inevitable) stimulus program will be…
3. RWI/ISL Global Shipping Container Throughput Index: Some more good news on the global trade front, on a seasonally and working day adjusted basis, the global container throughput index in October made its first new high since January – will markets likewise take their lead from this data?
4. Asian Currency Index (equal-weighted 10 currency index vs USD): This chart comes from my latest weekly “Global Cross Asset Market Monitor“, and it’s one I’ve been paying close attention to recently. I think this one is really interesting because we see the Asian currency index rebounding off a key support level. If this rebound can stick it could well be the sign investors are looking for with regards to Asian and Emerging Market Equities.
5. Reflation Trade Capitulation: What a difference a year makes… across a number of macro/sentiment indicators we’ve seen a 180 degree flip where complacency and euphoria have given way to pessimism and softening global growth momentum. A key indicator where we’ve seen this play out is the reflation trade positioning indicator, which simply shows capitulation.
Thanks for reading.
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