Ford Cutting Thousands Of European Jobs, China Car Sales Plunge 13% YoY, Etc.
Since early November 2018 when the 10-year Tteasury note yield hit 3.24%, both the Treasury yield and 30 year mortgage rate (MBA) have plunged.
Partly to blame is the slowing economies around the globe, particularly in Europe (check out Ford’s announcement of job cuts in Europe: Ford Motor Co. will shed thousands of jobs at its European operations as part of a bid to return the business to profitability with a broad restructuring that could include shuttering factories).
And then there is that 13% YoY decline in China Passenger Car Sales.
So, despite global zero-interest policies (except for the US), global economies are slowing.
It is difficult to push US interest rates higher when the global economy is slowing down.
To be sure, there are a whole host of wild cards that could send interest rates rising again: 1) US-China trade agreement, 2) ending the US government shutdown, 3) resolution of the neverending BREXIT issue, 4) France and Germany’s struggles to raise energy prices (Paris Accord?), etc.
The implied probability of a Fed rate hike in this global environment is pretty low.
And both the US Treasury actives curve and Dollar Swap curve remain kinked.
Will The Fed emulate Frank Booth from “Blue Velvet” and provide more oxygen to markets?
Support 100% ad-free Biiwii.com by making a donation of your choice!
Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get even more bang for your buck. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.