Like me or hate me, I think what I think and in this business that is part of my product (unlike, say, an office worker toiling away as a good company man while holding a veritable Vesuvius of thoughts within).
I really like the addition of NFTRH’s Wild Card segment, because it allows me a massive range. Two weeks ago we broke down the Semiconductor sector. Last week we talked about the shift in Fed policy toward the decidedly dovish. This week for tomorrow’s NFTRH 537 this thing was burped up.
It’s not actionable to any kind of real analysis, so here it is for public consumption (or regurgitation for all I care).
Saturday Morning Cartoons
First off let me say that my market report is called Notes From the Rabbit Hole. I have a tattoo of Alice, the Queen and the Rabbit on my right forearm. The letter is so named because early in the Millennium I fell into a hole inhabited by some strange characters, including the now very public Chris Martenson, who was but one of several characters.
There was a head guy (a cult leader of sorts) who I sensed thought of me as a fair haired boy. He was (is?) a gold bug who was thought highly of by people like Rick Ackerman, Mary and Jim Puplava (Financialsense.com), Bob and Barb Moriarty (321gold.com) among others. I don’t mention his name because he always kept a low profile (which to me, added to the mystique).
Why bring this up? Because back then I was buying gold (good move), a generator (good move), a hand gun (useless), wood stove (love it) and doing organic gardening (it sucked) in preparation for the coming economic and social winter. I even bought a greenhouse, realized ‘I don’t have time to figure out how to set this thing up’ and sold it. :-(
I have mentioned that people like Jim Sinclair with his perma-gloom, perma-‘buy gold!’ outlook resonated with me back then. Now, he is an elderly poster boy for what I see wrong with the gold “
community” cult (calling his followers CIGAs, AKA “Comrades in Golden Arms” to give them a sense of identity, belonging). The aforementioned Martenson has made a cottage industry out of building a community of preppers, with a side pitch that you will find “peak prosperity” along the way. Sort of like that Peak Oil you promoted repeatedly and very publicly, eh Chris?
At least my guy was low profile and in my opinion a true believer. But I just had to get the hell out of there because I didn’t like the feeling of being in tow with someone, anyone. I had to be vehemently independent. So I started biiwii.com (then my own vehicle as opposed to today’s posting of others) in 2004 and got the hell out of the Rabbit Hole. In Q4 2008, amid the oncoming destruction in the financial markets I thought ‘okay, now’s as good a time as any to launch this thing (NFTRH) and see how bad I suck’.
The rest has been up to evolution and what I have found along the way is that I’ve evolved to a point where I try to walk the line between knowing what I know, believing what I believe and yet also making the analysis subordinate at all times to WHAT IS (biiwii stands for ‘but it is what it is’, after all). I distrust perma-doom, perma-conspiracy promoters every bit as much as perma-bull, perma-stocks promoters.
Why the long preamble? Because last week I noted example after example of well followed market commentators spewing on Twitter about how Jerome Powell folded like a cheap tent. The likes and re-tweets poured in. Just a few sensational lines to inflame the masses and that is their analysis of the situation? These are people who are paid to write about markets and provide guidance. My less sensational posts/tweets about how the Fed was just in line with the 2-year Treasury yield got a like or two and basically just went along their way, largely ignored. Cults are everywhere and it’s Cartoon Nation.
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