The Daily Shot Brief – February 6th, 2019

By The Daily Shot

Greetings,

The United States: US farmers’ sentiment improved substantially in January amid hopes for a quick resolution in the trade war with China.

Source: Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer

China: Will we see an official rate cut from the PBoC?

Source: Barclays Research

 

The Eurozone: The first-quarter euro-area GDP isn’t looking too good.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Equities: After months of consecutive losses, long/short equity hedge funds turned a profit in January.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Credit: High-yield is now much less attractive relative to equities. This chart shows the spread between the HY index yield and the S&P 500 earnings yield.

Source: @lisaabramowicz1

 

Rates: This chart shows the percentage of states with the unemployment rate below NAIRU. It suggests that the Fed is already close to the terminal (longer-run) rate.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 


Food for Thought: The betting markets’ view on who will control the Senate after the 2020 election:

Source: @PredictIt

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