Is the $SPX Prone to a St. Patrick’s Day Hangover?

By Rob Hanna

St. Patrick’s Day was [on Sunday]. Traditionally known as the biggest drinking holiday, I wondered whether the stock market often suffered a hangover the next day. The study below looks at performance for SPX on the day after St. Patrick’s Day from 1978 – 2018.

2019-03-18-1

The numbers appear impressively bullish. Below is a look at the profit curve.

2019-03-18-2

This, too appears impressive.

Unfortunately, if we go back any further in time, the results are not nearly as compelling. So I am not sure there is a real seasonal edge here. But it does appear that the market is often able to bounce back from a night of drinking without any negative effects.

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