Tesla Conference Call Preview

By Tim Knight

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Global Equities Breadth Check – As Bad as 2015

By Callum Thomas

As I was going through and updating some client chart packs, I noticed an interesting development in the global equities country breadth charts.  The proportion of countries (we track 70 for this analysis) trading above their respective 200-day moving average (a good rough proxy for whether a market is an up vs down trend) reached the lowest point since the twin corrections and near-miss global recession of 2015/16.

I think this is a key chart to be across because it feels like we are in a similar potential kind of “near-miss” scenario where the pressure is really starting to mount on emerging markets.  The way a lot of key markets, e.g. global cyclicals vs defensives, are trading right now it’s not going to take much at all to trigger off a broader and deeper correction.  So the improvement that we’ve already seen in valuations might look better before long…

Continue reading Global Equities Breadth Check – As Bad as 2015

Approaching the 10-Year Anniversary

By Doug Noland

We’re rapidly Approaching the 10-year Anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis. Exactly one decade ago to the day (September 7, 2008), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into government receivership. And for at least a decade, there has been nothing more than talk of reforming the government-sponsored-enterprises.

It’s worth noting that total GSE (MBS and debt) Securities ended Q3 2008 at $8.070 TN, having about doubled from year 2000. The government agencies were integral to the mortgage finance Bubble – fundamental to liquidity excess, pricing distortions (finance and housing), general financial market misperceptions and the misallocation of resources. GSE Securities did contract post-crisis, reaching a low of $7.544 TN during Q1 2012. Since then, with crisis memories fading and new priorities appearing, GSE Securities expanded $1.341 TN to a record $8.874 TN. Of that growth, $970 billion has come during the past three years, as financial markets boomed and the economy gathered momentum. A lesson not learned.

Continue reading Approaching the 10-Year Anniversary

The Bullish CoT Setups in Gold and Silver

By NFTRH

You may know me as the guy using weird planetary alignments while assigning proper fundamentals to the gold sector, and recently even doing the same with a somewhat subjective and philosophical view of gold as an important counterweight or insurance component to a sensible portfolio. Or you may know me as the guy who confuses you with too many market indicators or annoys you with too many exposés of the more promotional and/or manipulative entities out there.

Or you may not know me at all.

If that is the case, let me introduce myself. My name is Gary and today I have a very simple post for your consideration. We will look at the now compelling views of the Commitments of Traders (CoT) data for gold and silver. While the prices of the metals are and have been technically bearish and the fundamentals are and have been poor, sentiment (CoT is ultimately a sentiment thing, after all) setups like those shown below should not be ignored. We are talking historic in silver and merely compelling in gold.

Continue reading The Bullish CoT Setups in Gold and Silver

DJIA/Gold Ratio

By Tom McClellan

DJIA/Gold Ratio

Every chart of price data is a depiction of a ratio.  If you look at a chart of your favorite stock, what you are really looking at is the ratio of the value of your stock to the value of the dollar, since stock prices are quoted in dollars.  AAPL recently was at 226 dollars per share.  Gold recently is at 1200 dollars per ounce.  Every price is a ratio.

But you don’t have to have currency in a ratio.  The value of the DJIA is an approximation of dollars per something; I won’t discuss the merits of that index’s construction here.  But if you take the DJIA’s “dollars per something” and compare it to gold’s “dollars per ounce”, you can factor out the currency and get a ratio of “something per ounce”.  Again, don’t get me started on what the DJIA’s value means.

Continue reading DJIA/Gold Ratio

Deutsche Bank Bottom?

By Kevin Muir

It’s been a while since I have posted, so I will ease in with a short and simple one.

When talking to credit managers, I always ask for names that they are avoiding. More times than not, one of the companies mentioned is Deutsche Bank. Credit managers either feel it is too complex to value, or they do not trust the markings of the smorgasboard of derivatives that decades of unrestrained capital market share growth has brought.

After all, we are talking about the firm audacious enough to buy Bankers Trust. I am old enough to remember when Bankers was the firm when it came to complex derivative products.

Continue reading Deutsche Bank Bottom?

Do Stocks Perform Better When Manufacturing Is Booming?

By Charlie Bilello

US manufacturing is booming.

In a report released this week, the ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 61.3, the second-highest level in the last 30 years.

Data Source for all charts/tables herein: FRED, Bloomberg

Many are saying that’s great news for the stock market because increased manufacturing activity is evidence of a stronger economy. This seems logical but does the data support such a conclusion? And is it prudent to use manufacturing indicators to time your exposure to stocks.

Let’s take a look…

Continue reading Do Stocks Perform Better When Manufacturing Is Booming?

Capex and Taxes; What The Corporate Sector Is Saying About the Economy

By Jeffrey Snider

Private US businesses are not building new facilities, or renovating old ones, at a rate that suggests the economy is doing well. Let alone booming. For more than two years now, the aggregate level of Private Non-residential Construction Spending has been flat.

According to the Census Bureau in figures released today, construction capex in July 2018 (seasonally adjusted) was less than 2% above what took place in July 2016. Compared to November 2016, there was less spending in the latest month than during the height of Reflation #3.

Continue reading Capex and Taxes; What The Corporate Sector Is Saying About the Economy

Chart: Tis the Season for a Higher VIX

By Callum Thomas

Studying historical averages can produce useful and interesting insights on the market.  Looking at the historical average level of the VIX we can see that the CBOE Volatility Index tends to be higher around this time of the year.  We showed elsewhere that this tendency is also mirrored in US high yield credit spreads (which makes sense as they are both basically market measures of risk pricing).  The key conclusion then is that there is a decent chance, based solely on historical seasonal patterns, that the VIX heads higher over the coming weeks.  There are always exceptions to historical average rules, but it is something to consider given the global macro risk backdrop (stress in EM, Fed tightening, political risk, softer global growth pulse).

Continue reading Chart: Tis the Season for a Higher VIX

Bull-Bear Index At Highest Since 1969 (What Kind Of Bear Is Best?)

By Anthony B. Sanders

What kind of bear is best?  The kind that doesn’t happen!

But alas, the Goldman Sach Bull/Bear index is signalling a possible bear market.

“Low unemployment … and strong growth momentum at such an advanced stage in the economic cycle would normally already be associated with higher wages and, consequently, higher inflation and tighter monetary policy,” Goldman Sachs  strategists said.

But “it is because of the lack of inflation that some of these variables can appear stretched without ringing alarm bells for equity investors. Put another way, it is very unlikely that without core inflation rising much, policy rates will rise sufficiently in the US or elsewhere to invert yield curves and/or force a recession in the near future,” the strategists said.

It doesn’t mean the bull market will end soon. But after a 9 1/2-year rally where the S&P 500 rose 19 percent annually, investors should be prepared for lower returns in coming years.

gsbb

Continue reading Bull-Bear Index At Highest Since 1969 (What Kind Of Bear Is Best?)

Gold and Silver Shorts Highest Ever!

By Anthony B. Sanders

Non-commercial shorts for gold and silver have hit the highest levels … ever!

goldsilvershortsrec

Actually, Silver shorts hit an all-time high and gold shorts are down slightly since yesterday.

Support 100% ad-free Biiwii.com by making a donation of your choice!

Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get even more bang for your buck. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.