By Tim Knight
The unraveling continued overnight with the market leader Bitcoin………
It still has a fairly solid shelf of support around $6,000. A clean break of that level would, I suspect, freak the HODLrs out, in spite of their moniker.
Here’s a cool parlor trick: If you want to bring a loud, rowdy room to a screeching silence, ask if anyone can explain how cryptocurrencies work.
Cue crickets chirping.
Turns out, the “crypto” part of the name originally signified the encrypted nature of digital assets and their anonymous owners. But it’s proven foretelling, as cryptocurrencies have become synonymous with a cryptic impenetrability the likes of which no modern mainstream financial market — especially not one so fervently embraced — has known.
Even the experts are stumped by the exact logistics involved in cryptocurrencies, as these recent opinions suggest:
That’s the bad news.
By Tim Knight
James: Hey, Tim, do you want to know how to make a small fortune from cryptocurrencies?
Tim: Sure, James, how DO you make a small fortune from cryptocurrencies?
James: Start with a large fortune!
Tonight, as I’m watching the crypto space continue to do what it has been doing for the entirety of 2018 – – that is, fall in value – – I am reminded of those ads which absolutely flooded the Internet late in 2017. Surely you saw them. There were dozens of flavors of this ad, but they all pretty much looked like these:
The basic come-on, if you followed any of these ads, was roughly along these lines:
By Tim Knight
I was amused – and a little amazed – to see this item this morning:
For the two or three of you unfamiliar with John McAfee’s famous bet, allow me to summarize it with one sentence and photo; as you can see, the former tech titan is looking a bit out of sorts these days:
See, I was convinced that this man has stumbled only publicity gold, because he made a provocative, amusing statement that swept the airwaves, but the prediction was far enough out that he could enjoy the fruits of this weird publicity stunt for a while without risk or bodily harm.
May 11, 2018
Back in January, I introduced readers to the revelation that all throughout 2017, the DJIA had been following in the footsteps of Bitcoin prices, with a lag time of about 8 weeks (56 calendar days). And it continues working even now, albeit with a slight adjustment.
Why would this relationship work? My answer is that there are cycles of human emotion which affect our collective attraction to and repulsion from speculative investments like the stock market. It appears that those same cycles of trader emotion are at work on Bitcoin traders, who are feeling those surges and lags in enthusiasm before they reach the hearts of stock investors.
By Keith Weiner
Let’s tie two topics we have treated, one in exhaustive depth and the other in an ongoing series. They are bitcoin and capital consumption. By now, everyone knows that the price of bitcoin crashed. Barrels of electrons are being spilled discussing and debating why, and if/when the price will go back to what it ought to be ($1,000,000 we are told).
As an aside, in what other market is there a sense of entitlement of what the price ought to be, and a sense of anger at the only conceivable cause for why the price is not what it ought?
Anyways, during the incredible run up in price, we wrote a series of articles, entitled Bitcoin, Postmodern Money. We were not focused on the price of the thing, other than to discuss the problems of unstable price, and even rising price. We did not say the price will come down, or when. We said a rising price makes it unusable as money.
In an online forum, some folks insisted that bitcoin is a store of value (in contrast to the dollar). We said that even if you don’t think it will crash, a skyrocket is not a store. Here is the graph through Friday.
By Tim Knight
You are probably as concerned as I am about John McAfee‘s junk. Mr. McAfee, once a respected businessman in my beloved Silicon Valley, saw his $100 million fortune dwindle to a tiny fraction of that following the financial crisis. Since then, he seems to have staked the rebuilding of his fortune on the soaring value of cryptocurrencies.
Famously, he has pledged to – – and I am not making this up – – eat his own dick if $BTC isn’t at least a million dollars per coin by the end of 2020. Not just eat it privately, like most of us would, but on “national television” (whatever THAT means). The end of 2020 seems like a million years from now (particularly if you’re waiting for the next Presidential election), but it’s only about a thousand days away.
I thought I’d actually calculate what bitcoin would need to do in order for John McAfee’s wanger to be saved (which I’m sure is large and lovely, even for a 72 year old man). Well, I’ve got the value for you: about half a percent a day, every day, without fail, for the next 1000 days.
That may seem a modest goal. After all, this is Bitcoin we’re talking about here. But keep in mind this is based on gains every single day, without interruption. And, if recent history is any guide, it isn’t exactly blazing its way to dick glory lately (I’ve put an arrow at the point where McAfee made his pledge; not surprisingly, it seemed unstoppable at the time).