Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard, Report

By Keith Weiner

My goal is to make you mad. Not at me (though I expect to ruffle a few feathers with this one). At the evil being wrought in the name of fighting inflation and maximizing employment. And at the aggressive indifference to this evil, exhibited by the capitalists, the gold bugs, and the otherwise-free-marketers.

So, today I am going to do something I have never done. I am going to rant! I am even going to use vulgar language (which is totally justified).

In researching several recent articles, I re-read old passages from Keynes. Consider these snippets:

Continue reading Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard, Report

Hurdles for Gold Stocks

By NFTRH

One problem for the gold stock sector was highlighted here and here evidently a little too obnoxiously for the liking of some bugs. The problem was the aggressive bullhorn sounds emanating from every orifice of the gold community the minute the charts broke upward into an obviously bullish technical state.

But while the HUI/Gold ratio has been a distinctly positive technical indicator and many bullish gold stock charts populated the sector, we had noted back in December that gold’s hysterically overbought performance vs. broad stocks was due to pull back, hopefully in an orderly consolidation. Well, the relief has dragged on and the ratio of gold to SPX and its global fellows has been consolidating alright.

Continue reading Hurdles for Gold Stocks

The Duality of Money, Report

By Keith Weiner

This is a pair of photographs taken by Keith Weiner, for a high school project. It seemed a fitting picture for the dual nature of money, the dual nature of wood both as logs to be consumed and dimensional lumber to be used to construct buildings.

Last week, in Is Capital Creation Beating Capital Consumption, we asked an important question which is not asked nearly often enough. Perhaps that’s because few even acknowledge that capital is being consumed, and fewer tie it to the falling interest rate (perhaps that is because the fact of the falling interest rate is, itself, controversial). At any rate, we showed a graph of Marginal Productivity of Debt.

Continue reading The Duality of Money, Report

Pivotal Events – Precious Metals

By Bob Hoye

Click for PDF…

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Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get much more bang for your buck. Also keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com. Follow NFTRH & Biiwii via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits.

Bold Gold Rolled

By Tim Knight

In spite of the President’s declaration on Saturday that the dollar was “too strong”, King Dollar is holding its own and, in turn, gold continues to get battered. It has tumbled hard pretty much every day since February 20th. I wanted to mention, however, that it could be finding a reasonable area of strength soon.

Miners, too, should be watched closely for support a little north of $21.

Continue reading Bold Gold Rolled

Is Capital Creation Beating Capital Consumption?

By Keith Weiner

We have written numerous articles about capital consumption. Our monetary system has a falling interest rate, which causes both capital churn and conversion of one party’s wealth into another’s income. It also has too-low interest, which encourages borrowing to consume (which, as everyone knows, adds to Gross Domestic Product—GDP).

What Is Capital

At the same time, of course entrepreneurs are creating new capital. Keith wrote an article for Forbes, showing the incredible drop in wages from 1965 to 2011. There was not a revolution, because prices of goods such as milk dropped at nearly the same rate. The real price of milk dropped as much as it did, because of increased efficiency in production. The word for that which enables an increase in efficiency is capital.

Or, to put it another way, capital provides leverage for productive human effort. We don’t work any harder today, than they did in the ancient world (probably less hard). But we are much richer—we produce a lot more. The difference is capital. They had not accumulated much capital. So they were limited to brute labor, to a degree which we would find shocking today.

Continue reading Is Capital Creation Beating Capital Consumption?

Gold Sentiment Lesson #3000

By NFTRH

The number in the title is in honor of the boldest forecast burped up by the gold community in February as the metal (and the miners) jerked upward and jerked the holdout would-be enthusiasts into the market. It was included in the anonymous (but real) quotes from a cautionary post last week on the Gold Bull Horns.

We also used these quotes in an NFTRH update in order to try to make a point, despite what were very short-term contrarian bullish readings that day (per Sentimentrader’s data) for junior and senior gold miners.

From the update (2.28.19)…

Continue reading Gold Sentiment Lesson #3000

Is Lending the Root of All Evil?

By Keith Weiner

Ayn Rand famously defended money. In Atlas Shrugged, Francisco D’Anconia says:

“So you think that money is the root of all evil? . . . Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can’t exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or of the looters, who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil?”

There needs to be a similar defense of the loan.

Continue reading Is Lending the Root of All Evil?

Gold’s Fellow Travelers Refute its Higher High

By Tom McClellan

Gold prices versus Japanese yen

Gold prices recently swooped up to a rather spiky looking top, and on Feb. 21 a big drop started the work of unwinding that blowoff.  It was a good looking spike upward as far as gold itself was concerned.  But it did not come with confirmation from other prices which tend to move in sympathy with gold.

This week’s chart compares gold futures prices to the Japanese yen.  Most of the time the two of them move together.  But occasionally they disagree, and that is when things get interesting.

Continue reading Gold’s Fellow Travelers Refute its Higher High

2019 Top 10 List

By Trey Reik

[biiwii comment: extensive gold report; worth your while]

Click graphic for full pdf report…

sprott gold report

Support 100% ad-free Biiwii.com by making a donation of your choice!

Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get much more bang for your buck. Also keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com. Follow NFTRH & Biiwii via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits.

Central Planning is More Than Just Friction

By Keith Weiner

It is easy to think of government interference into the economy like a kind of friction. If producers and traders were fully free, then they could improve our quality of life—with new technologies, better products, and lower prices—at a rate of X. But the more that the government does, the more it burdens them. So instead of X rate of progress, we get the same end result but 10% slower or 20% slower.

Some would go so far as to say, “The free market finds ways to work even through government restrictions, taxes, and regulations.” We won’t address cardboard straws emerging where plastic straws are banned. Or gangs selling illegal drugs on the black market, when they are prohibited by law.

As usual, we want to talk about the most important kind of government intervention. And it happens to be the one kind of government intervention that is accepted by nearly everyone. The intervention supported by the otherwise-free-marketers.

Continue reading Central Planning is More Than Just Friction

Gold Generally Does What it is Supposed to Do

By Steve Saville

Like every other financial market in world history, the gold market is manipulated. However, anyone who believes that manipulation of the gold market is an important influence on major gold-price trends does not understand the true fundamental drivers of the gold price.

To paraphrase Jim Grant, gold’s market value is the reciprocal of confidence — in the banking system (including the central bank), the economy and the government. In other words, gold should do relatively well when confidence is on the decline and relatively poorly when confidence is on the rise.

By comparing the gold/commodity ratio with measures of monetary and/or economic confidence it can be shown that gold generally does exactly what it should do. There are periods of divergence, but these tend to be short (no more than a few months) and barely noticeable on long-term charts.

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