By Anthony B. Sanders
…As Treasury Announces MORE Auctions AND A 2-Month T-Bill (Dollar Continues To Decline In Purchasing Power)
According to the Treasury Advisory Committee (TBAC),
- Over the next three months, Treasury anticipates increasing the sizes of the 2-, 3-, and 5-year note auctions by $1 billion per month. As a result, the size of 2-, 3-, and 5-year note auctions will increase by $3 billion, respectively, by the end of October.
- In addition, Treasury will increase the auction size of the next 2-year FRN auction by $1 billion in August.
- Finally, Treasury will increase auction sizes by $1 billion to each of the next 7- and 10-year notes and the 30-year bond auctions in August, and hold the auction sizes steady at that level through October.
Not surprising given Washington DC endless appetite for spending.
Continue reading Tbac-o Road: 10-Y Treasury Yield Tops 3%…
By Kevin Muir
I am sure many of you are sick of my yield curve talk. I have been babbling about the curve for far too long. I guess it’s a little understandable as I believe a steepener position will be “the” trade during the next crisis.
Yet there can be no denying that so far, I am wrong and the yield curve keeps going down faster than the plate of drinks at the end of David Hasselhoff’s table after a taping of Britain’s Got Talent.
It’s not an expensive position to carry, so it’s not like I am bleeding profusely from the position, but there can no denying the call has been a dud.
Continue reading Yield Curve Apologists
By Anthony B. Sanders
2Y Italian Yield Spikes 153 BPS
A general rule of thumb is that whenever sovereign yields spike by over 10 basis points, it is a big deal.
So Italy and Greece 10-year sovereign yields spiking over 40 basis points this morning is a big deal! The third PIG (Portugal) is up 11.3 BPS.
For the 2-year sovereign debt, Italy is up over 153 BPS.
Continue reading The Return of the PIGS: 10Y Italy, Greece Yields Spike Over 40 BPS
By Steve Saville
One of the financial world’s most dangerous expressions is “this time is different”, because the expression is often used during investment bubbles as part of a rationalisation for extremely high market valuations. Such rationalisations involve citing a special set of present-day conditions that supposedly transforms a very high valuation by historical standards into a reasonable one. However, sometimes it actually is different in the sense that all long-term trends eventually end. Sometimes, what initially looks like another in a long line of price moves that run counter to an old secular trend turns out to be the start of a new secular trend in the opposite direction. We continue to believe that the current upward move in interest rates is different, in that it is part of a new secular advance as opposed to a reaction within an on-going secular decline. Here are two of the reasons:
The first and lesser important of the reasons is the price action, one aspect of which is the performance of the US 10-year T-Note yield. With reference to the following chart, note that:
a) The 2016 low for the 10-year yield was almost the same as the 2012 low, creating what appears to be a long-term double bottom or base.
b) The 10-year yield has broken above the top of a well-defined 30-year channel.
c) By moving decisively above 3.0% last week the 10-year yield did something it had not done since the start of its secular decline in the early-1980s: make a higher-high on a long-term basis.
Continue reading Why It’s Different This Time
By Anthony B. Sanders
Last Time Was Before Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Collapsed
The last time that the S&P 500 dividend yield was below the 3-month Treasury bill yield was back in February 2008, before both Lehman Bros and Bear Stearns collapsed. And before Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into conservatorship on September 6, 2008.
But yes, for the last several trading days the S&P 500 dividend yield has been BELOW the 3-month Treasury bill yield once again.
Oddly, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are STILL in conservatorship with their regulator, FHFA while Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns are but a grim reminder of the financial crisis.
On a side note, the actor to the left of Ryan Gosling in the film “The Big Short” is a former student of mine.
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By Anthony B. Sanders
Oil Rising! (And No Mountains In Ocean City, NJ)
Here we go again.
The US Treasury 10-year yield has pieced the 3% resistance level … again.
And then promptly feel below 3% resistance level again.
Continue reading 10-Year US Treasury Note Yield Pierces 3% Resistance Level (Again)
By Michael Ashton
I try to stay away from making predictions. I don’t see the upside. If I am right, then yay! But after the fact, predictions often look obvious (hindsight bias) and it is hard to get much credit for them. By the same token, if I am wrong then the ex post facto viewer shakes his head sadly at my obtuseness. Sure, I can make a prediction with a very high likelihood of being true – I predict that the team name of the 2019 Super Bowl winner will end in ‘s’ – but there’s no point in that. This is one of the reasons I think analysts should in general shy away from making correct predictions and instead focus on asking the correct questions.
But on occasion, I feel chippy and want to make predictions. So now I am going to make a ridiculously specific prediction. This prediction is certain to be incorrect; therefore, I just want to observe that it would be churlish of you to criticize me for its inaccuracy either before or after the fact.
Ten-year Treasury rates will break through 3% for good on May 10, and proceed over the next six weeks to 3.53%. As of this Thursday, year/year core CPI inflation is going to be 2.2% or 2.3%, and median CPI over 2.5% and nearing 9-year highs. At that level of current inflation, 3% nominal yields simply make no sense, especially with the economy – for now – growing above trend. Two percent growth with 2.5% inflation is 4.5%, isn’t it? There is also no reason for 10-year real yields to be below 1%, so when we get to that 3.53% target it will be 1.08% real and 2.45% expected inflation (breakevens).
Continue reading My Ridiculously Specific Expectation for 10-year Interest Rates
By Keith Weiner
The hot topic in monetary economics today (hah, if it’s not an oxymoron to say these terms together!) is whither interest rates. The Fed in its recent statement said the risk is balanced (the debunked notion of a tradeoff between unemployment and rising consumer prices should have been tossed on the ash heap of history in the 1970’s). The gold community certainly expects rapidly rising prices, and hence gold to go up, of course.
Will interest rates rise? We don’t think it’s so obvious. Before we discuss this, we want to make a few observations. Rates have been falling for well over three decades. During that time, there have been many corrections (i.e. countertrend moves, where rates rose a bit before falling even further). Each of those corrections was viewed by many at the time as a trend change.
They had good reason to think so (if the mainstream theory can be called good reasoning). Armed with the Quantity Theory of Money, they thought that rising quantity of dollars causes rising prices. And as all know, rising prices cause rising inflation expectations. And if people expect inflation to rise, they will demand higher interest rates to compensate them for it.
The quantity of dollars certainly rose during all those years (with some little dips along the way). Yet the rate of increase of prices slowed. Nowadays, the Fed is struggling to get a 2% increase and that’s with all the “help” they get from tax and regulatory policies, which drive up costs to consumers but has nothing to do with monetary policy. Nevertheless interest rates fell. And fell and fell.
Continue reading Wealth-Destroying Zombies, Report 6 May 2018
By Elliott Wave International
Conventional Wall Street wisdom says “rising rates are bad for stocks.” Let’s put that belief to a test.
One of the big financial news stories on April 24 was that the 10-year Treasury yield hit 3% for the first time since 2014.
The other big financial news story was that the DJIA closed 424 points lower on that day.
As you probably know, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that investors will sell stocks in favor of bonds when yields reach an attractive level. So, it’s not surprising that many pundits blamed the DJIA’s triple-digit decline on rising bond yields.
Here’s a sample April 24 headline along with higher bond yield warnings from the past few months:
- Here’s the threat to the stock market from rising bond yields (Marketwatch, April 24)
- Rising bond yields could win next round in battle with stock market (CNBC, Feb. 7)
- How Spiking Bond Yields Could Topple a Stock Market Rally (Bloomberg, Feb. 4)
But, is the conventional wisdom that says higher bond yields will send stocks lower correct?
Well, our research reveals that there is no consistent correlation between interest rates or bond yields and the stock market.
Take a look at these charts from Robert Prechter’s 2017 book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:
Continue reading Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling?
By Charlie Bilello
Interest rates are on the rise, at their highest levels in over 4 years. What is that telling us, if anything, about growth and inflation? Let’s take a look…
While you often hear commentators suggesting there is a strong relationship between bond yields and the real economy, the evidence seems to be lacking. Since 1930, the correlation between annual change in real GDP and the 10-year treasury yield is effectively 0 (-0.05).
Continue reading What Is the Relationship Between Interest Rates, Growth and Inflation?
By Anthony B. Sanders
Mortgage Refi Applications Deader Than A Norwegian Blue
Finally, the US Treasury 10-year yield has pierced the 3% barrier and NOT immediately dropped back. The 10-year yield stands at 3.03%.
How about the 30-year mortgage average? The Bankrate 30Y mortgage average rate is now 4.50%.
Continue reading US Treasury 10Y Yield Pierces 3% Barrier, 30Y Mortgage Rates at 4.5%