A general review of the current status across different asset markets. This is not comprehensive, forward-looking analysis as per NFTRH, but it is an up to the minute summary (as of Friday afternoon).
Gold, silver and Gold Stock indexes/ETFs made what I had thought were bear flags yesterday, but today painted them as short-term ‘W’ bottom patterns, in silver and the miners anyway.
This chart of gold (courtesy of Barchart.com) shows a flag breakdown, whipsaw and new closing high for the short-term move. As we’ve noted for weeks now, the Commitments of Traders (CoT) is in a contrary bullish alignment with large Specs all but wrung out of the market (they were fleeced again; don’t believe hype about their increased shorting being some sort of conspiracy). All in all, not bad for the relic. The bounce lives on.
Continue reading Multi-Market Status: Precious Metals, Commodities, US & Global Stocks
By Notes From the Rabbit Hole
There is nothing bullish happening on the gold and silver charts. Nothing bullish on the miner Index/ETF charts. Nothing bullish on the HUI/Gold ratio. In other words, when it comes to a segment as volatile and sentiment-dependent as the precious metals, we are in the kill zone.
That can be read a couple of different ways. First, the inflationist gold bugs are getting exterminated as the US dollar first rose and since has stubbornly refused to take a pullback.
But the time to buy the gold sector is pretty reliably when the bugs are dead or at least hiding deep in the woodwork; so deep that you’d not even know they are still there. Just as you should have caution when gold bugs are trumpeting loudly, you should be brave when they are in full retreat… or worse, dead.
Continue reading Gold’s Kill Zone
On June 26 we provided an antidote to some media hysterics about a “Death Cross” in gold.
On that same day we had an NFTRH update (still password protected, but below is the screenshot of the intro) illustrating for subscribers a developing positive risk vs. reward proposition in gold and silver.
On June 28 we noted the out-performance by counter-cyclical gold miners to cyclical copper miners.
Continue reading Precious Metals Summer Potential
From this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, an excerpt from NFTRH 502‘s Precious Metals segment, since I haven’t given the PMs much airplay on the public site lately. It gets a little prickly at one point, with some views on the gold sector’s perma-pompoms but then gets back on track.
First off, let’s review some macro fundamental charts. We know that bond yield dynamics are not yet favorable and neither is gold’s standing vs. major stock markets.
Gold vs. Commodities is still generally not good. Now, this (including gold/silver) is actually a sign that the inflation trades live on. Ref. our thoughts in the commodity segment that it may regenerate for one more thrust. An inflation trade can keep the gold sector afloat, but it is not the preferable fundamental backdrop for buying long-term positions. If this does not change I’d look to sell any decent rallies.
Continue reading Precious Metals (NFTRH 502 Excerpt)
With gold testing its 200 day moving average this morning I thought I’d reproduce the first part of the precious metals segment from week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 497), including a daily chart of gold at the end showing the anticipated SMA 200 test.
We have done a lot of work delineating what the best investment environment would be for gold and especially the gold mining sector. The gold miners leverage (for better or worse) gold’s performance vs. cyclical items like stocks, commodities and materials. Gold vs. stocks is a macro fundamental indicator on investor confidence, or lack thereof. Gold vs. Energy and Materials are gold sector fundamentals directly informing a gold mining company’s bottom line performance (their product vs. mining cost inputs).
When inflation is taking root and the economic cycle is up, the gold sector is suspect for the reasons stated above. It is and has been suspect to this point by definition, because gold is either in long-term down trends (vs. stocks) or has been flat lining for 2 years (vs. commodities). Let’s realize that gold and the gold sector can and probably would go up in an inflationary boom (assuming gold were out performing stocks) but the fundamentals would degrade as long as the economy remained firm.
Continue reading A Gold Sector Fundamental View