It’s been awhile since we’ve had any data on the US economy. With the federal government having been shut down, especially the Census Bureau, the figures have gone dark. The current short-term government reopening will lead to an eventual rush of estimates, perhaps a few series that will be updated two months at a time.
In lieu of all that, the dataset that breaks the silence is the payroll report. Hooray. When we last left it the US economy was booming big, at least according to the BLS headline. The release was a perfect smash, the Establishment Survey coming in at +312k and with flawless timing to help soothe rather dire market sentiment after a traumatic December.
The new data for January 2019, released today, includes the standard annual benchmark update. There wasn’t much change in either direction from the revisions, save December’s number. Just like that it’s gone, vanished. That extremely helpful +312k has been replaced by +222k instead.