The Triple B Problem

By Kevin Muir

Lately I have fallen down when it comes to the number of MacroTourist posts. It’s not that I didn’t want to write, but I got Lennon’ed with life getting in the way of my plans. So to remedy this situation, I have decided to commit to posting today’s write up, but also a follow up tomorrow. I figure that if I promise you two pieces, the shame of not following through will ensure compliance. Call it my own little life hack.

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S&P 500 vs. Gold (AKA Amigo #1); a Closer Look at Risk

By Notes From the Rabbit Hole

Not much has changed since the last 3 Amigos macro update. Amigo #2 (long-term yields) has long-since reached the Continuum’s ™ limiter (the 100 month exponential moving average on the 30 year Treasury yield) and Amigos #1 (SPX/Gold) and #3 (the 10-2 yield curve) are still on their respective trends (up for SPX/Gold and flattening for the yield curve), indicating a positive and risk ‘on’ macro backdrop.

Of the 3 wacky riders, with Steve Martin now having gotten home and Martin Short a duller indicator (and lesser light), let’s focus on the Chevy Chase Amigo. There he is on the left, a look of triumphant joy on his face riding one-handed with his arm up in the air. Not a care in the world (as Steve Martin braces for the impact of Continuum’s limiter).

Continue reading S&P 500 vs. Gold (AKA Amigo #1); a Closer Look at Risk

Friday Reveals Event Risk Complacency

By Tom McClellan

Friday up days stock market SP500

The SP500’s higher close on Friday was one of several up Fridays we have seen recently.  Moving up or down on a Friday can convey a message about investor sentiment, especially when multiple Fridays see the market go in the same direction.

To be a buyer on a Friday, one has to accept that you cannot get out again until Monday.  So it takes some degree of confidence that “event risk” won’t be a problem over the weekend.  When people are feeling fearful, Fridays are more likely to see a lower close.  And by the same token, bidding up the market on Fridays can be a sign of confidence.

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Investors Becoming More Confident on Risky Assets

By Callum Thomas

The April round of the State Street global investor confidence indexes showed institutional investors appear to be growing more confident on the outlook for risky assets.  The regional indexes showed this uptick in risk appetite has been widespread across the major regions.  It appears as though institutional investors are looking through much of the “noise”, and focusing on the reset in sentiment and valuations against the backdrop of decent earnings and economics.  With this group of investors controlling large sums of money it will be interesting to see if this increased confidence translates into higher stock prices.

The key takeaways from the latest State Street investor confidence index results are:

-Global institutional investors are increasing allocations to risky assets.

-The uptick in investor confidence is widespread across the major regions.

-The investor confidence indexes are quantitative indicators, and take account of actual changes in allocations across State Street’s $30 trillion global custodian business.

-As the Euphoriameter shows, there has been a reset in ‘investor euphoria’ driven by lower valuations, higher volatility, and less bullishness in the surveys.

1. Global Institutional investor Confidence Index:  The April reading of the State Street global investor confidence index showed a further rise, +3pts to 114.5, which is the strongest reading since March 2016 – which coincidentally was just after a substantial stock market correction.  Basically institutional investors are feeling fairly confident on the outlook for risky assets, and appear to be looking through the noise (trade wars, geopolitics, etc) and focusing on the reset in valuations, decent earnings results, and solid global macro pulse.