As Goes January…? Really?

By Tom McClellan

Annual Seasonal Pattern

The stock market’s relationship to its normal seasonality has gotten wacky lately.  October to December is supposed to be an up period for stock prices, and instead we saw a very sharp correction.  In recent years, January has typically seen a meaningful decline, but the stock market instead powered higher.  In fact, the DJIA’s 7.2% gain in January 2019 was the strongest January since 1989.

Continue reading As Goes January…? Really?

Thanksgiving Week Seasonality – An Updated Look

By Rob Hanna

The time around Thanksgiving has shown some strong tendencies over the years – both bullish and bearish. I have discussed them a number of times over the years. In the updated table below I show SPX performance results based on the day of the week around Thanksgiving. The bottom row is the Monday of Thanksgiving week. The top row is the Monday after Thanksgiving.

2018-11-19

Monday and Tuesday of Thanksgiving week do not show a strong, consistent edge. But the data for both Wednesday and Friday looks quite strong. Both of those days have seen the S&P 500 rise over 70% of the time between 1960 – 2017. The average instance managed to gain about 0.3% for each of the 2 days. (This is shown in the Avg Profit/Loss column where $300 would equal a 0.3% gain.) That is a hearty 1-day move. Meanwhile, the Monday after Thanksgiving has given back over half the gains that the previous 2 days accumulated. It has declined 66% of the time and the average Monday after Thanksgiving saw a net loss of 0.37%.

Continue reading Thanksgiving Week Seasonality – An Updated Look

How Seasonality The Week Of Memorial Day Has Changed Over The Years

By Rob Hanna

Happy Memorial Day! The week of Memorial Day has shown some interesting seasonal tendencies over the years. But it has faltered greatly the last few. The chart below is one I have shown in the past, and have now updated. It examines SPX performance from the Friday before Memorial Day to the Friday after it.

2018-05-28

There was no substantial edge apparent throughout the 70s, but starting in 1983 through 2009 there was a bullish tendency. The last 8 years this week has mostly struggled.  That said, Thursday continues to look seasonally strong, and I will update that study later this week.

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