Is the $SPX Prone to a St. Patrick’s Day Hangover?

By Rob Hanna

St. Patrick’s Day was [on Sunday]. Traditionally known as the biggest drinking holiday, I wondered whether the stock market often suffered a hangover the next day. The study below looks at performance for SPX on the day after St. Patrick’s Day from 1978 – 2018.

2019-03-18-1

The numbers appear impressively bullish. Below is a look at the profit curve.

Continue reading Is the $SPX Prone to a St. Patrick’s Day Hangover?

The Bearish Aftermath of Quad Witching

By Rob Hanna

A Twitter follower ( @SonnyRico ) asked me about weeks following Quad-witching, which occurs in March, June, September, and December. As I have shown in the past, the 2nd half of December has shown bullish tendencies historically (ignore 2018), but those other 3 have NOT been good weeks for the market. In fact, back in September I discussed the “Weakest Week”, which is the week after September opex. In the Quantifiable Edges subscriber letter that same week (free trial here) I showed a table with the best and worst weeks of the year since 1988. Below is an updated version of that table, showing just the bottom 8 weeks. (Note I did not include weeks after the 5th Friday of the month, since instances for those were greatly reduced.)

2019-03-15

Continue reading The Bearish Aftermath of Quad Witching

3-day Pullbacks from 50-day High to 10-day Lows

By Rob Hanna

The decline in SPX meant it was the 3rd day in a row in which it closed lower. 3-day pullbacks will often suggest an upside edge. I also found it notable that 1) the pullback originated from a 50-day high, and 2) it left SPX at a 10-day low. So I examined other times we saw such drops, and found some interesting results.

2019-03-07

Historically we see that 3-day drops from 50-day highs to 10-day lows have often by followed by a bounce in the next few days. Traders may want to keep this in mind as they determine their trading bias.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

Support 100% ad-free Biiwii.com by making a donation of your choice!

Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get much more bang for your buck. Also keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com. Follow NFTRH & Biiwii via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits.

The Extreme Persistence of the Current SPX Rally

By Rob Hanna

The last time the SPX closed below its 10-day moving average was January 3rd. That means it has now been 35 straight trading days that SPX has closed above the 10ma. That is a very long streak. Below is a list of all streaks since 1928 of 35 days or longer. (Note: prior to 1957 S&P 90 Index data is used. This is the predecessor to the S&P 500.)

2019-02-26

Continue reading The Extreme Persistence of the Current SPX Rally

An $SPX Sector Breakdown & Visual Of The Rubber-Band Effect

By Rob Hanna

Below are the nine S&P 500 sector ETFs and their performance for the 14 days heading into the December 24th market bottom, and then their performance for the 14 days since.

2019-01-16

As you can see, the sectors that were stretched the farthest to the downside have bounced the highest to the upside. The sectors that held up a little better during the selling have not had nearly the same bounce. This is typical of a market coming off a V-bottom. This does not mean the groups that have bounced the most to this point are the ones that are most capable of leading a new bull market. Those potential leaders are yet to be determined. It simply shows the rubber-band effect off the deeply oversold low.

Want research like this delivered directly to your inbox on a timely basis? Sign up for the Quantifiable Edges Email List.

Support 100% ad-free Biiwii.com by making a donation of your choice!

Or better yet, subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas to get much more bang for your buck. Also keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com. Follow NFTRH & Biiwii via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits.

January Opex Week

By Rob Hanna

Opex week overall has typically been a bullish part of the month for the market. But over the last 20 years, January has been a major exception to this rule. The table below shows results of buying the Friday before options expiration week in January and then selling at the close of option expiration Friday, which is the 3rd Friday of the month.

2019-01-11-1

15 of the last 20 January opex weeks have closed down. And the average January opex week lost about 1%. The max run-up during the week was about 0.8%, while the average drawdown during the same period was about 3x that, at 2.2%. And the stats are all this poor despite last year posting the 2nd strongest up move on a January opex week over the 20-year sample. Here is a chart that shows how the edge has played out over time.

Continue reading January Opex Week

The Most Wonderful Week of the Year…2018 edition

By Rob Hanna

Over several time horizons op-ex week in December has been the most bullish week of the year for the SPX. The positive seasonality actually has persisted for up to 3 weeks. I’ve shown the study below in the blog many times since 2008. It looks back to 1984, which was the first year that SPX options traded. The table is updated again this year.

2018-12-14-1

The stats are extremely strong. This year I also decided to throw in the 5-day equity curve.

Continue reading The Most Wonderful Week of the Year…2018 edition

How Low Could the S&P 500 Go?

By NFTRH

Our target for the first half of 2019 is and has been the 2100 to 2200 area for the S&P 500. A friend asked…

I’ve been meaning to ask (and possibly) know the answer, 2100-2200 for H1 2019 is your ultimate bear market target or opening act?

Opening act. It could be the ultimate target because there is a lot of support at that area and a good solid bear phase could put the Fed on ice and impose some changes to Donald Trump’s bull in a China shop policy style.

So for now I see no reason to make dire proclamations beyond that key support level, as so much will depend on incoming information in 2019. At this point, even 2100-2200 is not technically in the bag because the US stock market clung to last ditch daily chart support, as per the marginally favored short-term NFTRH view. So all of we bear callers need to remember that as ugly as the charts are, support is not broken until it is… broken.

I was going to cover this in NFTRH 530‘s Opening Notes segment, but why not make it a public post and save NFTRH’s virtual ink for more immediate issues going on with the markets? Before we dial out to a couple of simple SPX charts showing the prospective downside targets, lets review the situation with a less than simple chart.

Continue reading How Low Could the S&P 500 Go?

When SPX Closes Higher on Bad Breadth

By Rob Hanna

While the SPX closes higher on Tuesday, NYSE breadth was weak – both from an % Up Issues and % Up Volume standpoint. This triggered the study below from the Quantifinder. I also discussed it in last night’s subscriber letter.

2018-11-28-1

Here we see numbers suggesting a substantial bearish edge over the next 1-4 days. Below is the full list of instances and their 4-day returns.

Continue reading When SPX Closes Higher on Bad Breadth

A New NFTRH Segment: Opening Notes – US Stock Market

By NFTRH

I decided a couple weeks ago add a regular segment where I just talk about some things I think I know about a given market or situation based on the previous week’s activity. This is before I get myself educated on the latest market data and information. I need the weekly work I do in NFTRH as much as anyone. Without it, I can be rudderless and prone to my own biases.

This is just one small, less mission-critical aspect of NFTRH (representing 2 of 52 on-point pages across the markets) and the funny thing is, I think it stands up to much of the premium stuff out there in its entirety for any given week. But then, I am biased and as such I think NFTRH is better than any other market report or newsletter that I know of out there.

So here’s what I thought I knew about the stock market before beginning NFTRH 523

Continue reading A New NFTRH Segment: Opening Notes – US Stock Market