There’s no shortage of event risk in the week ahead. This is not going to be for the faint of heart.
Chief among concerns is of course Trump’s trade war, pre-announced last Thursday, much to the surprise and chagrin of damn near everyone, including investors.
The decision on steel and aluminum tariffs rattled markets and although some Trump surrogates have suggested it shouldn’t come as a surprise given Wilbur Ross’s recommendation and, perhaps more to the point, candidate Trump’s promise to try and restore lost “greatness” by propping up dying industries, everyone was assuming that rationality (or some semblance thereof) would ultimately prevail.
Long story short, everyone was wrong.
While some analysts are still holding out hope that the rhetoric will turn more conciliatory going forward, Peter Navarro didn’t exactly inspire much confidence on Sunday. Make sure and stay tuned to Trump’s Twitter feed or maybe Fox & Friends for the latest updates on this because if we learned anything on Thursday, it’s that unless you’ve got a direct line to Wilbur Ross (which I guess would mean having two Campbell’s Soup cans joined together with a string), the first people to know what the next step is are Fox anchors and Donald Trump (in that order).
The dollar managed to eke out a gain last week and it will obviously be in focus again as it’s being pulled between the twin deficit boondoggle and the administration’s weak dollar by proxy policy on one hand, and higher rates/a more hawkish Fed on the other.
Continue reading Not For The Faint-Hearted: Full Week Ahead Preview
Well it turns out that no one knew what Trump was going to do on Thursday when he rattled global markets and infuriated America’s trade partners by announcing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
Of course all you really needed to do to understand that this was yet another example of Trump flying off the handle was look at the sequence of headlines. Recall how this played out yesterday:
- 8:53: TRUMP IS SAID TO ANNOUNCE TARIFFS AT MORNING MEETING: CNBC
- 10:42: CNBC: TRUMP EVENT AT 11AM WILL BE ON TRADE, NOT TARIFFS
- 12:30: TRUMP SAYS 10% TARIFF FOR ALUMINUM; TRUMP SAYS 25% TARIFFS FOR STEEL
Clearly, Trump simply went rogue as he’s prone to do and just like all the other times he’s come unglued and made a rash decision with global implications without coordinating with his aides, lawyers, and cabinet, he doubled down on Twitter the next morning in an effort to try and make it seem as though he hadn’t made a mistake.
On Friday afternoon, NBC is out reporting that according to an internal White House document, “Trump’s policy maneuver was announced without any review by government lawyers or his own staff.” To wit:
Continue reading ‘Unglued’ Trump Was ‘Looking For A Fight’, Was Goaded Into Tariff Decision By Ross, Navarro: NBC
By James Howard Kunstler
Personally, I believe that the plodding, implacable Robert Mueller, white knight of the Deep State, will flush the Golden Golem of Greatness out of office, probably on some sort of money-laundering rap having nothing to do with “Russian meddling.” Anderson Cooper will have a multiple orgasm. Rachel Maddow will don a yellow hard-hat and chain-saw a scale model of Mar-a-Lago to the glee of her worshippers. The #Resistance will dance in the streets. And then what?
I doubt that Mr. Trump will go gracefully. Rather he’ll dig in and fight even if it means fomenting a constitutional crisis. He’ll challenge Mr. Mueller on veering into matters unrelated to alleged Russian pranks in the 2016 election. He may well attempt the self-pardoning gambit. He will have a lot of support out in the Deplorable gloaming. But, at some point, I expect a bipartisan consensus to emerge in congress that the guy has got to go. He’s making it impossible to conduct even the routines of bribery and domestic collusion that Washington exists for. Nobody is getting paid — at least not the bonuses they’re accustomed to seeing.
Continue reading End Times at the OD Corral